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Italy

spain-italy

In Europe 22nd June 2014

The fair value for Italian and Spanish spreads

LONDON | Cagdas Aksy at Barclays | A model framework, which takes into account economic/fiscal fundamentals and risk aversion factors, indicates a fair value level of about 200bp for 10y Italy and Spain vs Germany. The high debt problem for most peripheral countries is something that will take many years to reverse and the ECB’s commitment through OMT and potential QE can contain these concerns to a large extent, as long as it maintains its credibility. Under this more optimistic scenario, fair value moves down to 90-100bp. After 350-400bp of tightening over the past two years, 10y core periphery spreads are 30-40bp away from stretched levels.

Austerity

In Europe 2nd June 2014

What 20 years of austerity mean

MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | Despite Italy’s PM Matteo Renzi is the only one fighting the hard EU economic line, Italian public debt reaches 135% of GDP. The country is required by the fiscal compact to return to 60% in 20 years, which would involve perpetual austerity for an entire generation at least. However, the problem does not only affect Italy but all the European Southern countries.

No Picture

In Europe 6th March 2014

Spain is no longer Europe’s sick man; it’s Italy’s turn

MADRID | By Francisco López | Investment banks and international funds are betting on buying Spanish Treasury’s stocks. In fact, Spain’s 10 years bond yielded under 3.40% on Wednesday, an unprecedented level since 2006. Interests of Italian debt stands even under that of Spanish, but Brussels’ study on the euro zone imbalances pointed Italy as the new sick man of Europe, basically due to its high public debt and the lack of reforms.

italy

In Europe 28th November 2013

Italy: The burdensome legacy of Il Cavaliere

ROME | By Barbara Spinelli at La Repubblica via Presseurop | Silvio Berlusconi has been expelled by his peers from the Senate and stripped of his immunity in a long-awaited vote on November 27. Despite no longer being in Parliament, Il Cavaliere has indelibly left his mark on this era and society, writes Barbara Spinelli.

No Picture

In Europe 28th November 2013

Berlusconi out of Parliament

ROME | By La Stampa via Presseurop | The Senate voted to strip Silvio Berlusconi of his senator’s seat on November 27 following his conviction for tax fraud in August, reports La Stampa.

Italian banks

In Europe 19th November 2013

Italian Banks: Ongoing improvements, but uncertainty remains

LONDON | By Barclays analysts | We discuss the Italian economic and financial situation based on data and analysis contained in the November 2013 Bank of Italy Financial Stability Report. Following almost two years of recession in Italy, positive growth should resume in Q4 this year. After a likely 1.8% GDP contraction this year, we forecast a 0.8% expansion in 2014.

No Picture

In Europe 13th November 2013

Spanish and Italian inflation wrap-up: Services and food driving inflation down

LONDON | By Barclays analysts | Taking into account today’s downward revision in Spanish HICP, we now revise our October French HICP forecast from -0.2% m/m (0.6% y/y) to -0.1% m/m (0.7% y/y). The Italian final October HICP inflation rate was revised up by 9bps to 0.76% y/y. We note that historical subcomponents indices have been revised since the beginning of the year (although not the headline index). This nonetheless does not alter our view that euro area HICP inflation rate should come in unchanged at 0.7% y/y. If anything, we see slight downside risk to our 116.99 HICP ex tobacco projection.

berlusca

In Europe 4th October 2013

The twilight of Il Cavaliere

TURIN | By at La Stampa via Presseurop | Silvio Berlusconi, repudiated by some of his associates, who forced him to back the vote of confidence in the Enrico Letta government, and in the process of being ousted from the Senate – a committee is to decide on October 4 whether he should be stripped of his seat – Il Cavaliere is moving towards an inevitable exit from the political stage.

Ciao Berlusconi Ciao1

In Europe 2nd October 2013

Ciao, Berlusconi, Ciao

MADRID | By Tania Suárez | Angelino Alfano, Berlusconi’s deputy and secretary of People of Freedom, defied “Il Cavaliere” and urged the party to unite behind Prime Minister Enrico Letta on Wednesday. It seems the end of Berlusconi’s political leadership is nearer now that all five ministers from the PDL are stepping down. But he won’t leave without a fight.