By José Ramón Díez Now that the three months of conflict in the Middle East are behind us, the effects of the supply shock caused by rising energy prices will gradually become apparent in the inflation and growth data. The combination of uncertainty and resilience that has characterised the global economy’s performance in recent times creates a fragile balance, particularly whilst geopolitical risk remains at very high levels. This situation…
Report by Bankinter The US has bombed Iranian air defences near the Strait of Hormuz and Iran is responding with attacks in various parts of the Middle East. Although these attacks appear to have been successfully intercepted, they are weighing on stock markets: Japan (down 2%); South Korea (down 6.5%); NY futures (down 0.2%)… However, what will really determine the direction of today’s session is US inflation (14:30) for May….
Reported by Consejeros Editorial Team In most European Union (EU) countries for which data was available, the apparent cost of public debt rose slightly or remained stable between 2024 and 2025, according to data published by Eurostat. The highest apparent cost of gross government debt among the countries for which data was available was recorded in Romania (5.2%), followed by Poland (4.5%), the Czech Republic (3.1%) and Italy (3%). The…
Report by Renta 4 Flat opening on European markets (Eurostoxx futures down 0.1%, S&P futures up 0.2%, Nasdaq futures up 0.3%) and a strong rebound in Asia (Japan’s Nikkei 2%, South Korea’s Kospi 8%) Yesterday, once again, and following the overnight escalation in the Middle East conflict, with crossfire between Israel and Iran and Hezbollah’s admission of having taken part in the attack on Israel (whilst banning Israeli shipping in…
By Deborah Cunningham The ability of the new Chair, Kevin Warsh, to lead the Federal Reserve will depend on the market believing that he is not beholden to President Trump. Being sworn in at a ceremony held at the White House has not done him any favours. It was the first time since President Reagan swore in Alan Greenspan that the ceremony took place there rather than at the central…
Reported by Consejeros Editorial Team The Croatian economist Boris Vujčić, a central banker who advocates keeping inflation under control through higher interest rates, takes up the post of Vice-President of the European Central Bank (ECB), replacing Spain’s Luis de Guindos, for a non-renewable eight-year term. Almost three and a half years after the introduction of the euro in Croatia, Vujčić joins the ECB’s Executive Board at a time when the…
This Thursday marks three months since the start of the Iran war, whilst peace negotiations continue – negotiations that do not appear to be bearing fruit. Meanwhile, the energy crisis continues to take its toll on the global economy. In fact, Scope Ratings forecasts that “the price of oil will average around $100 per barrel in 2026 and that, from then on, it will fall only gradually, remaining in 2027…
The ‘Report on the Impact of AI on the Employment Structure 2026–2030’ produced by GenAiA (Generative AI Association) highlights how 54% of banking jobs have high potential for automation according to Citigroup, and how AI systems already outperform humans in legal and medical tasks. Analysis by Editorial Board According to Layoffs.fyi, the 1.17 million job cuts recorded in 2025 — the highest figure since 2020 — represent only the visible…
Report by Pablo Duarte The market is faced with a robust US economy and a weak eurozone: inflation is rebounding, driven by energy prices, whilst geopolitical risks are mounting. At the same time, expectations regarding interest rates are increasingly diverging, and global growth forecasts have been revised downwards. The global economy is reeling, energy costs remain sky-high, the war in Iran is driving up transport costs and fuelling serious fears…
Report by Link Securities The European Commission (EC), in its Spring Economic Report 2026, has revised downwards its forecast for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the European Union (EU) and the Eurozone, citing inflationary pressures arising from the conflict in the Middle East. Thus, the EC has cut its growth forecast for the EU economy for 2026 from 1.4% to 1.1%, and for the Eurozone economy to 0.9% from…