Morgan Stanley | Merlin trades persistently with a discount against its counterparts while offering one of the most interesting return growth profiles (15-20% total return) among those who give a 20% discount.
Spanish real estate still has growth to deliver. Regardless of global economic slowdown, Brexit or trade tensions, we think the country’s competitive labour market should support one of the highest economic growth rates in Europe. Spanish GDP should grow at 1.7% pa over the next three years vs 1.1% in the Euro area, according to BofA economists.
The capital of Spain is one of the most cyclical markets in Europe and rents are still far from the previous peaks. According to Morgan Stanley, there is more upward potential in values with exposure to offices in Madrid. Besides, Spain is expected to grow above the European average.
Merlin Properties, one of the main property companies listed in the Spanish stock market, is studying creating alliances to buy part of the property portfolio of El Corte Inglés, Spain’s biggest retail group, which amounts 94 assets. The value of the portfolio is around €17.2 Bn, of which €15 billion euros are points of sale.
The shareholders of the Testa Residencial, Santander (37%), BBVA (26%), Acciona (20%) and Merlin Properties (17%), have finally chosen to list the Socimi on the MAB instead of making a public offer of part of its share capital. The reason behind the decision is the tensions in the financial markets over the last few days.
Home prices in Spain rose 4.4% year-on-year in Q2’17, according to the Price Index for Repeated Home Sales published by the Property Registers College. Prices have now been increasing for 10 consecutive quarters,
Almost 10 years after the big property bubble burst, Spain is once again showing how emotional it can get it with bricks and mortar in all its forms. And emotional is the word, because the ‘revival’ of the real estate sector – something which nobody was betting on three or four years ago – is so spectacular that not a day passes when there is not some sort of euphoric news emerging about it. Of course figures are figures and these are more than amazing. If we focus on the Socimis, the protagonists of the property market in this current phase, the truth is the numbers are really impressive.
In 2016, Merlin Properties posted a record profit of 582.6 million euros, almost 12 times more than in 2015. Rental income corresponding to just the fourth quarter rose to 121.5 million euros from 74.9 million in the third quarter thanks to the integration of Metrovacesa’s assets from end-October.
Fernando Rodríguez | Hispania, Axiare, Lar and, above all, Merlin are looking good. Spain’s 4 big Socimis are reflecting the favourable economic cycle, the recovery in the property market and the beneficial tax conditions they enjoy. Risks include the upward tension in interest rates and the profileration of competitors, with the stock market swarming with 30 or so Socimis of all kinds.
Socimis, or Reits as they are called in Europe and the US, have helped revive the damaged real estate sector in Spain since 2009. Merlin Properties has been one of the most successful ones and was listed by Chairman and founder Ismael Clemente in 2014. In his opinion, that was a good year to start because “the cycle bottomed out at the end of 2013.”