outlook US GDP

Keep Calm: the US should dodge a recession in the next 12 months

Keep Calm: The US Should Dodge A Recession In The Next 12 Months

AXA IM outlook for the US economy, which was below consensus back in November, was a herald of subsequent market fears. Since the relationship between the recession risk and the market sell-off goes both ways, the question was whether market events had overtaken the economic outlook and threatened an even sharper slowdown in activity. Now, they have updated our probabilistic model of US recessions.