Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez called snap elections for April 28th after holding an extraordinary cabinet meeting in Madrid. The ballot follows Sanchez’s defeat in parliament over his 2019 fiscal plans. Madrid avoids May 26 “Super Sunday,” with local, regional and EU elections the same day.
Joan Tapia (Barcelona) | BBVA says that Spain could grow 2.4% this year (it grew 2.5% in 2018) and 2% in 2020. This would create 800,000 jobs over the two years and unemployment would fall to 12.6% (compared to 15.3% in 2018). Yet, BBVA also warns that the probability of an accident has increased. Spain’s public debt is 12 points above the eurozone average, around 100% of GDP. Moreover, the Catalan situation is explosive as it represents 16% of the population and 19% of GDP.
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez this Wednesday will attend a meeting organised by the American Chamber of Commerce in Spain (AmChamSpain) during the General Assembly of the UN, together with over 20 leaders of major multinationals, US banks and major investment funds. At the moment, Sánchez has already had the opportunity to greet US President Trump.
J.P. Marín-Arrese | “At least, no single Yemeni would face death singled out by these ingenious devices shipped from Spain to Saudi Arabia.” Such a startling statement did not come from the arms industry, but the Spanish government spokeswoman.
From 2019 it is possible that Spain will have difficulties financing its public debt, which is definitely not only the official figure of 98.3% of GDP. Rajoy’s increase of this debt by €649 billion has been financed at very low interest rates, thanks to the ECB’s quantitative easing. On the other hand, Pedro Sánchez has announced substantial spending increases, which will inevitably increase debt in 2019.
The Government of Pedro Sánchez has admitted that Spain will not meet the fiscal deficit targets set by the previous government of Mariano Rajoy. The new targets are -2.7% for 2018 (as opposed to -2.2% before) and -1.8% for 2019 (as opposed to -1.3%).
Israel Rafalovich | In the last few days a saying has frequently been heard in the corridors of the European Commission: “Spain is not Italy. With the new Spanish government it is now a Spanish spring.”
Luis Alcaide | Pedro Sánchez will be monitored from every corner to see if he can count on the collaboration of a Spanish administration more independent than in the past. He will have to manage budgetary imbalances and growth of public debt. Furthermre, his fellow citizens rate corruption, after unemployment, their greatest concern.
Fernando G. Urbaneja | Mariano Rajoy has left the Moncloa to be replaced by the socialist leader Pedro Sanchez, who 10 days before couldn´t have imagined a substitution so rapid or so brutal. However, Spain’s problems remain: whether the demands for Catalan independence and other nationalist forces that threaten the constitution and national unity, or the urgent need for profound reforms in the welfare system and the management of public accounts, threatened by the deficit and the debt.
J.P. Marín Arrese | PM Pedro Sánchez will govern backed by a weak minority party. There will be little respite from either those who voted for him or those who voted against him. No one expects the new Spanish government can deliver any substantive policies. Yet, such an isolated and weak position can also be a valuable asset.