The Volkswagen scandal is a gigantic fraud which has taken in nearly 11 million consumers, as well as a host of governments well endowed with civil servants and a raft of regulations. This deception now forms part of a long list of disgraceful corporate actions which have been revealed since the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989.
Exane BNP Paribas | Following the appointment of Tidjane Thiam as group CEO, there is more scope for a shift in strategy away from the investment bank and towards the wealth management business. Many investors compare this to when UBS announced their restructuring in 2012. In theory this should free up capital, and reduce the volatility of the earnings, enhancing the valuation. This sounds good so far, but we have to look at some numbers.
MADRID | The Corner | Peripheral equities and bonds have been strongly favored by Draghi’s speech last Friday at Jackson Hole with intense improvements in sovereign credits from Portugal, Spain and Italy, which have reached record lows. In particular, Spain’s 10-year bonds yields are at 2.12% under the 2.38% of comparable U.S. Treasuries and especially today the Spanish Treasury has reduced sharply the interest rates of three- and nine-months bills in an auction of € 3,500 million at historical lows, without entering in negative territory like on the secondary market. Nevertheless, UBS strategists are starting to change their bullish view on peripheral Europe basing on market and fundamental arguments.
MADRID | The Corner | The biggest uncertainty for China’s economy now and in 2015 is the nature and duration of the ongoing property downturn. Following a sharp drop in the beginning of 2014, Chinese property construction has shown signs of improvement in recent months as policies have been increasingly relaxed. Both have provided support for the economy and property related stocks, with the latter rallying by 17% from trough levels. However, UBS analysts expect that the property downturn will weigh more heavily on growth in Q4 and 2015.
MADRID | By The Corner | Swiss national bank has pointed out that the country’s two big entities UBS and Credit Suisse should reinforce their leveraging ratios in order to increase their protection against eventual risks, including legal disputes. Furthermore, UBS could be fined between €4.9- 7.3 bn after manipulating exchange rates. Credit Suisse has already paid $3.7 bn to settle legal cases in the U.S. over helping Americans evade taxes and the sale of mortgages to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.