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World economy 4th November 2020

Market Flash – US elections

The list of potential outcomes is narrowing, but we may still not have a result today. While some races looked closer this morning, we are down to 6 states that will determine the outcome. Right now, Joe Biden is ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan, which, if Biden holds Nevada, would be enough to put him in the White House. If Biden does not win all three, the scenarios include Pennsylvania, which might need until Friday. We should have results for North Carolina and Georgia today, with both potentially going to Trump.

Relevant News Item 4th November 2020

All Up In The Air In The US: The “Blue Wave” Has Not Happened, There Is Still No Clear Winner

With the counting still to be completed (some states like Pennsylvania and Michigan will continue to count votes until the end of the week), the candidates are very tied (238 Biden vs 213 Trump) against Biden’s victory that had been discounting the markets. Breaking all the democratic rules, Donald Trump calls himself the winner and asks that the postal ballot count be stopped (about 5 million votes), since it is a “fraud to the American public” and “an embarrassment to our country”.

Relevant News Item 3rd November 2020

US Elections: In The Short Term, The Best For The Market Is The Blue Wave

Joe Biden is the clear favourite to win the US elections, with in addition a fair chance of a “blue wave”. In the opinion of Gilles Möec, chief economist at AXA IM, given the need of another fiscal push, in the short term, it is probably the optimal outcome for the market especially if the results come quickly. Questions on the long-term US policy stance will come later.

World politics 29th October 2020

What the US Election Means for the Liberal World Order

Vittorio Emanuele Parsi & Valerio Alfonso Bruno | In 1992, Francis Fukuyama published his controversial best-seller, “The End of History and the Last Man,” arguing that liberal democracy is the final form of government for all nations. Almost three decades later, G. John Ikenberry, one of the most influential theorists of liberal internationalism today, in “A World Safe for Democracy” suggests that the liberal world order, if reformed and reimagined, remains possibly the best “international space” for democracies to flourish and prosper. After all, reasons Ikenberry, what do its illiberal challengers like China or Russia have to offer?

In the World, World politics 28th October 2020

History Will Tell If The Coronavirus Is To Trump What Hurricane Katrina Was To George W. Bush’s Legacy

Regina Borromeo (Robeco ) | Since the summer, our view has been that voting momentum will follow the path of the pandemic and the economic recovery. Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic has been compared to George W. Bush’s mishandling of the disaster response to Hurricane Katrina, which coincided with a fall in the President’s polling and approval ratings. National polls have seen Biden extend his lead to over 10% recently, a larger spread compared to 2016 when Hilary Clinton ran against Trump.

In the World, World politics 26th October 2020

The Race Is Tightening Between Mr Trump And Mr Biden

The final presidential debate between Mr Trump and Mr Biden was yesterday evening. This final head to head between the candidates before the election on 3 November came after the second debate was cancelled due to Trump’s infection with coronavirus. Despite the chaotic back and forth between both candidates during the first debate, there are notably different views between both candidates about corporate taxes, energy and US-China trade

In the World, World economy 18th October 2020

The Scale Of US Election Spending Explained In Five Graphs

William Horncastle via The Conversation | The amount of money spent on US elections eclipses the annual total economic output of some small countries. The total spending by candidates, political parties and independent campaign groups in the 2016 race was US$6.5 billion – comparable to the GDP that year of Monaco, Kosovo or Liechtenstein. The 2020 election cycle is forecast to smash previous spending records, with the Center for Responsive Politics estimating it will cost US$11 billion. That would be comparable to the 2019 GDP of Equatorial Guinea or Chad.

In the World, World economy 15th October 2020

Big Tech’s Market Might In Five Charts

Sean Markowicz (Schroeders) | The largest US technology stocks – Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Google (Alphabet) – known as the “FAMAGs”, have largely benefitted from the economic fallout of the crisis, as more people rely on their technology to work and shop from home. However, their increasing dominance is raising concerns about the top-heavy composition of the US equity market and the sustainability of the tech rally.

In the World, World economy 14th October 2020

US Equities Are Showing Buoyancy In October

After a lackluster September, US equities are showing buoyancy in October. The NASDAQ 100 Index is up over 2.7% while the S&P 500 Index is up over 3.4% month-to-date[1]. While markets were initially disappointed by delays in the much-awaited US fiscal stimulus, it appears that they are now beginning to price in the strong impact it can have whenever it comes – before or after the US presidential election. Which assets stand to benefit and how could investors position themselves?

World economy 24th September 2020

Three Policy Differences For Investors To Watch In The US Presidential Race

Donald Trump and Joe Biden have pronounced policy differences on corporate taxes, energy and US-China trade, but generally similar views around drug pricing, large-cap tech firms and infrastructure investment. As the US presidential election draws closer, the race is tightening between both candidates. While much is at stake in this election cycle, the three policy areas noted above could have a large impact on the markets and portfolio allocations, warns Allianz GI.

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