USA

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Consumer confidence slows down in US

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index declined in June, although somewhat less than expected: specifically, this indicator stood at 100.4 from 101.3 previously and slightly above the 100 expected. This lower confidence was mainly explained by the decline in the expectations component (73 versus 74.9 previously), as the reading of the current situation improved (141.5 versus 140.8 previously). Still in the US, the S&P Case-Shiller index of house prices in…


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Manufacturing activity boosts US industrial production in May by 0.9% month-on-month

Intermoney | US May industrial production shows muscle as it grew by a strong +0.9%m. We were taken by surprise by the solid data considering that the ISM manufacturing survey for May pointed to only a slight rebound, although other indicators pointed to some recovery. Manufacturing activity, the most relevant item, largely explained the figure, as it also rose by 0.9%, led by consumer goods (1.3%) thanks to the expansion…


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Increasingly clearer landing for US economy: 2Q24 started April with nominal growth of +0.2% but negative real growth of -0.1%.

Santander Research: After a first quarter of surprisingly strong economic data and inflation, April seems to be a slowdown, as indicated by our economists. And that starts with payrolls (175k) and, above all, consumption slowing down, from the explosive +3% growth of 3Q23 and 4Q23 to +2% in 1Q24 after revisions. And what is even clearer, 2Q24 started with April’s nominal growth of +0.2% and even negative in real terms,…


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US GDP rises 1.6% between January and March, boosted by services consumption

Intermoney| As expected, imports subtracted from GDP, which was expected given the trade deficit. The trade drag took 0.86 p.p. off the growth rate. Paradoxically, strong imports reflect solid consumer demand, but they also detract from overall GDP growth. That is the trade-off. Net exports only grew by +0.9% quarter-on-quarter, which shows that a strong dollar seems to put some pressure on exports. Also note that inventories built up at…


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Housing sector still a headache for Fed: new home sales rebound

Intermoney | New home sales rebounded in March to 693,000, well above the 668,000 expected, but coming on the back of a downward revision of February sales by -25,000 (662,000). The point is that an acceleration was seen in quarterly terms with a March average of 667,000. For the moment, the housing sector looks set to remain a headache for the Federal Reserve. It is true that the supply of…


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US and China continue to dominate global foreign direct investment flows

Global economyCapital Group| It seems that foreign investment patterns have yet to show a decisive successor to China. Globally, foreign direct investment (FDI) as a percentage of GDP peaked around the time of the financial crisis: investment in China stagnated slightly earlier, in the early 2000s, just after its accession to the World Trade Organisation and following rapid inflows into the manufacturing sector. In absolute terms, however, the United States…


Aukus

US, Australia and UK seek to add Japan to Aukus strategic military alliance to share advanced defence technologies

Banca March: Aukus is a strategic military alliance between three countries in the Anglo-sphere: Australia, the UK and the US. The United States, Australia and the United Kingdom are seeking to add Japan to their strategic alliance known as Aukus. Initially, this strategic military alliance between the three countries was intended to help Australia acquire nuclear-powered submarines and, unofficially, to counter China’s power in the Indo-Pacific region. However, prior to…


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US grows 5.2% in 3Q23 compared to 2.1% in previous quarter, largest increase in two years

Link Securities| According to the second estimate of the data, released yesterday by the Commerce Department, US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded 5.2% in 3Q2023 relative to 2Q2023 in annualised data (2.1% in 2Q2023), slightly more than the 4.9% initially estimated. The FactSet consensus of analysts expected growth of 4.9%. The increase in GDP in 3Q2023 is the largest in annualised data since that achieved in 4Q2021. In this second…


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Conference Board’s advance indicator, below previous month and below expectations: 0.8%

Link Securities| The Conference Board’s index of US leading economic indicators, the Leading Economic Index (LEI), declined 0.8% in October compared to September, after falling 0.7% in September. The FactSet consensus of analysts expected a decline of 0.6%. In the April to October time period (last 6 months) the LEI has contracted by 3.3%, a smaller decline than the 4.5% drop it experienced during the previous six months (October 2022…


US jobs

First signs of weakness in US labour market: unemployment up slightly to 3.9%

BancaMarch: First signs of weakness in the US labour market, known on Friday. On the one hand, the Non-Farm Employment Creation figure was below 200,000 jobs, and practically half of September’s figure (150,000 against 180,000 expected and against 297,000 of the previous month, revised downwards). In line with the lower job creation, we also saw unemployment rise by one tenth of a point to 3.9%, a rise that came in…