USA

World economy 1st July 2025

Europe fears Spain’s stance on defence spending could be stumbling block in trade talks with US

Norbolsa | Spain’s lack of commitment to increasing defence spending as agreed with NATO opens up another rift in EU-US relations. Trump threatens to double tariffs on Spain for failing to meet its defence commitments. With trade agreements in place, it seems unlikely that tariffs could be imposed on a member state, but there is a risk that they could impact the country’s most sensitive goods, including oil, wine and…

In the World 29th June 2025

US GDP contracts by 0.5% in annualised terms in 1Q25 against +2.4% in 4Q24

Singular Bank | According to the BEA, in the final reading, GDP fell by 0.13% in quarterly terms in 1Q25 (against an increase of 0.61% in 1Q24). At the same time, in year-on-year terms, production growth stood at 1.99% (versus 2.53% in the last quarter of 2024) and in annualised terms contracted by 0.5% (against plus 2.4% in the previous quarter).

In the World 25th June 2025

US preliminary composite PMI remains in expansion territory and above estimates at 52.2 points

Singular Bank | According to the preliminary reading for June, the US manufacturing PMI remained stable at 52.0 points, above analysts’ consensus estimates (51.1 points). In contrast, the services sector PMI declined slightly to 53.1 points (against 53.7 points in May). Despite this, the result was better than the consensus of analysts (52.9 points). Given this development, the US composite PMI fell slightly to 52.8 points (against 53.0 points in…

In the World 13th June 2025

Pending ratification by China, US to levy 55% tariff on Chinese imports and China 10% on American imports

Bankinter: Principle of a trade agreement between the US and China. Trump announced yesterday an agreement whereby China will supply the US with minerals and rare earths in exchange for allowing its students access to American universities. The US will levy a 55% tariff on imports from China (current 25% + 10% base rate + 20% for fentanyl trade) and China will apply a 10% tariff on US imports. The…

In the World 9th June 2025

China’s exports to US fall 34.4%, lowest level since February 2020

Bankinter: China’s Trade Balance widened its surplus in May, to $103.22 billion versus an estimated $101.1 billion and $96.18 billion previously. Bankinter analysis team’s view: The CPI has contracted for the fourth consecutive month and reflects the weakening of consumption. In the industrial sector the situation is even more complicated. Industrial Prices have remained negative since October 2022. On the other hand, the Trade Balance shows an increase of the…

In the World 4th June 2025

Trump getting in a hurry: government invites countries to submit “best tariff offer” today, 4 June

Bankinter | A document/letter from the US government has been leaked, inviting all countries to submit their “best tariff offer” today, June 4, to complete the deals as soon as possible. So far, the US has only concluded a deal with the UK. Then, according to the letter (it is not known which countries have received it), the US government will respond within days with the tariff measures it believes…

In the World 3rd June 2025

US trade deficit narrows sharply in April following 19.8% month-on-month drop in imports, largest ever

Bankinter | The US trade deficit narrows sharply following the largest ever drop in imports (19.8% month-on-month), while exports grew by 3.4%. The item where the reduction in the deficit is most evident is in consumer goods (down $49.276 billion in April against $80.843 billion previously). After the sharp increase in the deficit in Q1 2025 to avoid the impact of tariffs, imports are normalising, softening the impact on the…

In the World 29th May 2025

Trump’s tariff moderation lifts Conference Board consumer confidence in US by 12.3 points to 98 in May

Singular Bank | In May, the Conference Board’s US consumer confidence index rose 12.3 points to 98.0, after five consecutive months of declines, up from 87.1 expected and 85.7 previous (revised from 86.0). The improvement is explained by the moderation of uncertainty following the US trade agreement with the UK and the 90-day tariff pause with China. Against this backdrop, the current situation index in May increased by 4.8 points…

European economy 27th May 2025

EUR/USD continues to signal investor concern over US debt but no reallocation expected

Alphavalue/DIVACONS | EUR/USD continues to signal investor concern over US debt, but no widespread reallocation of European assets is expected. Considering Donald Trump’s tariff threat against the EU, it would not make sense. The EU would be hit hard if tariffs of 50% were imposed.

In the World 19th May 2025

US rating downgrade to Aa1 from Aaa reflects “more than a decade-long rise in government debt ratios”, says Moody’s

Bankinter | Moody’s downgrades the US credit rating to Aa1 (Stable) from Aaa (Negative). According to the agency, it “reflects the increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels significantly above those of countries with similar ratings”. Analysis team’s view: It is the last of the three rating agencies to cut the triple-A; Fitch and S&P were already at AA+ Stable. S&P did…

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