Intermoney | The US labour market took centre stage again on Tuesday with the release of the annual revision of payrolls created through March of this year. Given the unreliability of the data in recent months, the revision provides a clearer picture of the labour market. The new figures showed a downward revision of a record 911,000, suggesting that job creation was much less robust in the year to March…

Intermoney | Payrolls grew by only 22,000 (well below the 75,000 expected by consensus) compared to 79,000 in July. Although there were upward revisions in the previous two months of 29,000, this barely masked the fragility we have seen in recent months. In fact, average employment growth over the last three months is less than 30,000. Before going into detail, it should be noted that the response rate was abnormally…

Intermoney | Trade balance data showed that the US trade deficit widened significantly in July to $78.3 billion (from $59 billion in June), exceeding estimates and due to a sharp increase in imports before reciprocal tariffs came into effect for a number of countries that had not yet reached trade agreements. Imports rose 5.9% to $358.8 billion, boosted by imports of goods, which rose 6.9%. Not only did we see…

Singular Bank | According to the ADP report, job creation in the US private sector was limited to 54,000 jobs in August (compared to 106,000 in July), falling short of the consensus estimate of analysts (73,000 jobs). This data once again reflects the signs of deterioration in the labour market, ahead of today’s non-farm payrolls report, and supports the Fed’s expected cut in official interest rates at its meeting this…

Bankinter | The US Private Consumption Deflator (PCE) was in line with expectations in July: up 2.6% versus 2.6% previously. The core rate rose to 2.9% versus 2.9% estimated and 2.8% previously. Analysis team’s view: Figures in line with expectations. The PCE stabilised after rebounding in May and June. This inflation, together with weak labour market data in recent months, supports our view of a further rate cut of 25…

Link Securities | According to the second estimate of the data, published by the Department of Commerce, US gross domestic product (GDP) grew in Q2 2025 at an annualised quarterly rate of 3.3%, slightly higher than the 3.0% initially calculated and in line with FactSet consensus analysts’ expectations. In Q1 2025, the US economy contracted by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter in annualised terms. The upward revision of growth…

Bankinter | The rating agency notes that significant revenue from tariffs should offset other sources of fiscal pressure. Although it considers an improvement in the US deficit unlikely, it expects the country’s fiscal health to remain quite stable in the coming years, supported by relatively solid economic growth. The agency anticipates a gradual moderation in growth, with GDP growth projections of 1.7% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026, due to…