Articles by Miguel Navascués

About the Author

Miguel Navascués
Miguel Navascués has worked as an economist at the Bank of Spain for 30 years, and focuses on international and monetary economics. He blogs in Spanish at: http://http://www.miguelnavascues.com/
ECB's language change

The Euro Doesn’t Depend On Draghi

I don’t have the slightest doubt that Draghi is going to do the impossible to keep the euro, but it doesn’t depend on him. The euro is a false project which should have happened when things were more settled, in other words, as Draghi says, “when there was a single market.”


Secular stagnation

What’s happened to the Secular Stagnation thesis?

As the global outlook improves, many people ask what’s happened to Larry Summer’s hypothesis of Secular Stagnation, which says there are clear signs that the economic world has been “cooling down” for decades. And currently, everything seems to make us think that the recovery we have on our doorstep is not going to be strong or long-lasting.



Donald Trump

Dismantling Donald Trump And His Policies

With his policies, particularly protectionism, Trump is about to throw the US’ world leadership in the bin. He sold an illusion to his voters since the industrial jobs which disappeared with globalisation and technology will not return. What is clear is that the consequences will hurt us all.



Spain's GDP

The Upward Manipulations In Spanish GDP Accounting

We have seen how the public debt figures are being manipulated downward, and now we’re going to see how there are also manipulations in Spanish GDP, but this time they are upward. From this we can infer that the ratio of debt/GDP, which is a crucial figure for the health of any economy, is seriously undervalued.

 


Spanish public debt

The downward manipulation of Spanish public debt

There are some items of Spanish public debt which are eliminated from Bank of Spain’s accounts, reducing the total figure. In other words, 450 billion euros ignored. Basically, what is being removed is public companies’ debt, the debt issued by a public institution in the hands of another public institution, as well as other adjustments, which really should not be discounted.




France's risk premium

France’s Risk Premium Is Taking Off Ahead Of Presidential Elections

There is an increasing risk in French politics that Marine Le Pen will be victorious, which is fuelling a rise in the differential between the German and French bond to a four-year maximum. The markets are increasingly more sensitive, and it’s not just France. There are no political candidates left who do not pose a threat.