Articles by Miguel Navascués

About the Author

Miguel Navascués
Miguel Navascués has worked as an economist at the Bank of Spain for 30 years, and focuses on international and monetary economics. He blogs in Spanish at: http://http://www.miguelnavascues.com/
IMF's optimistic outlook of global economy

The IMF’s Optimistic Vision Of The Global Outlook

In the IMF blog there is a brief view of how well the year has gone and the promises for the future which we can extract from this good performance. For me it’s proof of an excess confidence which in the past was a trap into which the markets systematically fell. But the IMF has to accept the rationalistic view that the markets don’t get it wrong, while I maintain they quite often make mistakes.



Germany's fiscal policy

The Stagnation In Europe And Germany’s Leadership

Europe has been seriously hit by the outcome of the German elections. And it’s difficult for it not to suffer the consequences of being led by Germany. What is in doubt is whether in the next crisis, which could be fuelled by any of the underlying threats (Russia, immigrants, separatism etc) there will be sufficient common resources to deal with them.


Trump’s policies are boosting inflation

Is Trump’s Tax Plan Really Serious?

Donald Trump’s tax plan, which is now being debated in the Senate, states very seriously that its effect will be to multiply investment and jobs. That’s up for discussion, given that the US has probably reached its maximum potential, namely in terms of GDP without inflation and the jobless rate is at 4%.






Investors' perception of markets' risks

The Markets Are Not Frightened, Which Is A Reason To Fear

Markets’ indicators are showing a lack of any estimation of risk. To begin with, they are at record highs, although some observers say there is still upside potential. Investors’ perception of risk is very slight or zero and, as a result, the risks are very high for them.