US recovery

What the market is really telling about the US recovery

LONDON| By Stephane Deo and Ramin Nakisa at UBS | At the time of writing, the Treasury curve is telling the potential US GDP growth rate is very low – in the neighbourhood of 1%. The 30-year real yield is at 1.09% (but dipped below 1% recently), the 10-year real yield is at a frightening 0.36%, and the 5-year-in-5-year yield, a good proxy of where the market thinks long-term growth will settle, is at 1.05% (but also dipped below 1% recently).Taking those numbers at face value, we would have to conclude that the current recovery is doomed, and that growth will level off soon at a very disappointing level.

ECB’s package aftertaste: Will money flow into the real economy?

MADRID | By J.P. Marín Arrese | Euphoria is back in the markets following the ECB substantive package. The prospect that money will flood the financial system has significantly reduced the rate differentials between the Eurozone peripheral and core countries. Squeezing the channel for overnight interbank lending has brought the Eonia to fresh lows. [Graph: Eonia’s evolution in the past year]

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Debt markets’ rally triggers bubble concerns

MADRID | By Francisco López | It is not the first time economists, analysts and authorities recently talk about a possible bubble in the debt markets. But the latest, strong drops in peripheral bonds, in all-time minimums, have prompted alarms: there is too much euphoria and fixed-income market’s last moves doesn’t make sense.

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Do not be scared by these maximum levels!

MADRID | Ofelia Marín-Lozano | Stock markets are at maximum levels, but this is somehow tricky: such levels usually cause vertigo, whereas minimum levels lead to appetence for indebtedness and need to look for higher risk alternatives for investors who seek the actual yield.

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EU banks still owe €450bn from last LTRO

MADRID | The Corner Team | Eurozone’s banks have yet to pay back €450 billion from the 2012 long-term refinancing operation or LTRO. Executive Director in Global Cash Equity Sales at JP Morgan Hugo Anaya maintains a positive outlook and believes that even the P/E re-rating in the Euro stock exchange may continue.

Why ECB’s measures may not fix lending nor inflation

MADRID | The Corner | Despite markets’ euphoric celebration of Mario Draghi’s last words, some remain skeptic about them being the panacea for inflation and the lack of credit in the eurozone. Check the graph above: 5-year swap rates show that inflation expectations have only gone from 1.21/1.24 in May to 1.28/1.24. in June. Nothing to go crazy about, huh?

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DAX rocketing, Spanish risk premium at 120bp (and financing costs match US)

MADRID | The Corner | Despite the good performance of Western equities, many values are beginning to show signs of vertigo that could lead them to correct some of the gains of the past weeks in the coming days. In addition, the fact that trading volumes are shrinking as indexes advance is a clear sign that there are investors who feel dizzy levels. Therefore, Link experts point out, we shouldn’t rule out some small reductions in the short term even if it’s in an upward trend context.

After ECB’s bazooka, will we see negative bund yields again?

MADRID | By Ana Fuentes | Now that the ECB will charge banks for keeping them their money, don’t be surprised if some short-dated core sovereign bonds start yielding negative, Bond Vigilantes remark. Actually we’ve seen that before in the EZ: in August 2012, German authorities received with open arms 750 billion euros in deposits of its eurozone neighbors, mainly Spaniards and Italians. That intense demand drove the prices of short dated bunds to levels which produced negative yields.

What to expect from Draghi’s bazooka

MADRID | By Ana Fuentes and Jaime Santisteban | It’s a radical move because that’s what the eurozone needs. Besides cutting the ECB’s base interest rate from 0.25pc to 0.15pc, Mario Draghi also reduced deposit facility to -0.1pc. So EZ banks will either boost credit lending or pay to leave money in the central bank. Also, he offered banks new long-term funds. Market makers tell us what they make of the much-awaited package.