Renta 4 | Today before the market opened, IAG presented its annual results for 2025. The figures were as follows: Passenger revenue €6.935 billion (up 1% compared to Renta 4’s estimate and in line with Q4 24), total revenue €7.929 billion (up 1% compared to Renta 4’s estimate and down 1% compared to Q4 24), EBIT before extraordinary items (main operating figure) €1.093 billion (versus €1.040 billion Renta 4’s estimate, €1.077 billion consensus and down 2% versus Q4 24) and net profit €639 million (versus €1.905 billion Renta 4’s estimate and up 16% versus Q4 24).
IAG had €11.624 billion in liquidity in December 2025 (cash €6.837 billion and credit lines and other €4.787 billion ), up €182 million from Q3 25 and equivalent to 35% of 2025 revenue.
Net debt fell by €61 million compared to Q3 2025 and €1,569 million compared to Q4 2024 to €5,948 million (compared to €6,943 million Renta 4’s estimate) at a very conservative DFN/EBITDA 25 (0.8x), which allows it to improve shareholder remuneration as it is clearly below the range (1.2x/1.5x).
Thus, IAG proposes to pay a dividend of €0.05 per share for 2025 from 29 June, which complements the €0.048 per share paid in December 2025. The DPS would rise to 1.9%. In addition, it announces a €1.5 billion share buyback plan for the next 12 months, of which €500 million will be carried out before the end of May 2026. At Renta 4, we discounted €1 billion.
IAG has fuel hedges of 62% for 2026 and has announced a forecast range for annual fuel expenditure of €7-7.4 billion, including €150 million for emission rights (our estimate was €7.159 billion). Looking ahead to 2026e, management announces forecasts: capacity growth: 3.0% (in line with Renta 4’s estimate), cargo revenue affected by difficult comparatives and other revenue growing at low single digits, unit costs excluding fuel down 1% versus 2025 (Renta 4 estimate up 1.8% versus 2025) and capex of €3.6 billion (Renta 4 estimate net capex €3.8 billion). In terms of demand, they only indicate that the evolution of Q1 2026 bookings is strong, supported by an ‘early’ Easter. We expect a positive impact on the share price. Target price €5.30. OVERWEIGHT.
