Intermoney | Merlin Properties (MRL) (Buy, Target Price €15) announced on Wednesday, after the market closed, a capital increase via an accelerated bookbuilding (ABB) process. The SOCIMI will issue 52.3 million shares, or 10% of the share capital, which at yesterday’s closing price would represent a capital inflow of €768 million. Both Santander and Nortia, Manuel Lao’s vehicle, with stakes in Merlin of 24.7% and 8.2% respectively, have confirmed that they will subscribe to the increase.
The new capital will be used to finance Phase III of the data centres, which will involve the development of 412 MW in Bilbao, Zaragoza and Lisbon. The REIT expects this phase to require an investment of around €4.5 billion, to be financed on a 50/50 basis through equity and the issue of corporate bonds.
Assessment: Merlin has finally issued the new shares at yesterday’s closing price, meaning the capital increase exceeds €700 million – the REIT’s stated target for this first capital increase, as outlined on 10 March at its CMD in Bilbao. In fact, we had the impression that this move would have been immediate had it not been for the conflict in the Middle East.
Once Phase III is commissioned, which the REIT expects to happen in 2031, it is estimated that 65% of revenue will come from data centres. Our current estimates only include up to Phase II, or a total of 318 MW, but even so, this would imply that EBITDA would more than double between 2025 and 2031, reaching €836 million. In our valuation, data centres already account for 25% of NAV, at around €3.2 billion.
