Renta 4 | Yesterday, Neinor Homes (HOME) held its Annual General Meeting, at which it specified and reiterated its guidance to the market for the 2026–2027 financial years, with positive prospects despite global geopolitical uncertainty. In this regard, concerning the threat of rising construction costs stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, the company notes that, for deliveries scheduled for 2026, the necessary construction materials have already been received, and for 2027 deliveries, they have already been contracted, limiting potential short-term impacts.
With regard to the aforementioned 2026–2027 earnings guidance, the table below sets out both the company’s targets and our estimates.
Furthermore, it is worth noting the announcement of an asset rotation plan worth approximately €400 million, of which 25% has already been realised through the sale of Río Real and the creation of a joint venture with Stoneshield.
On the balance sheet side, the company’s main priority for 2026 and 2027 is the repayment of 50% of the debt to Apollo (approx. €360 million), with the aim of reducing the LTV ratio to the 20-30% range by 2028 (LTV ratio of 32.1% as at Q4 2029).
Assessment: We believe that the updated guidance should be well received by the market, as it essentially reiterates information already available, given that our estimates for the 2026–2027 financial years as a whole are in the upper range of the guidance.
That said, it is worth noting that, following the integration of Aedas Homes (AEDAS), Neinor will see its key financial figures more than double, with the capacity to distribute over €500 million in dividends (2025–2027; >30% of market capitalisation), improving ROE to >15%.
We reiterate our Overweight recommendation with a Target Price of €22.70 per share for Neinor Homes.
