The political risk in Spain is a totum revolutum, where even the analysts cannot agree on what factor carries the most weight: either the Catalan secession process, the appearance on the scene of a political force like Podemos or the possibility that the delicate balance acheived through the timid reforms implemented by Rajoy’s government could be destroyed.
Despite the fact that many of the banking sector ratios are improving, the Bank of Spain in its November bulletin has once again called on the industry to adjust its business model and even adapt its corporate strategy to a demanding economic and regulatory environment.
Despite the fact the implantation of the digital economy in the western world is unstoppable, the problems and the barriers remain. Proof of that is that the European Union has lost its digital leadership. The creation of a Single European Digital Market could redress that situation.
Since the Eurozone’s recovery started two years ago, the number of people in work has grown in all EU member states individually during the last seven quarters. In Q2’15 it expanded by 1.9% on a y-o-y basis.
Popular chairman Angel Ron’s proposal to raise salaries in line with productivity in order to speed up the consolidation of economic growth is clearly at least worthy of a discussion. In the short-term, it would have repercussions not only on corporate profits but also on improving confidence, the recovery in consumption, the increase in production and job creation.
Experts are forecasting an unemployment rate of 15% in 2018, when it is estimated that Spain’s economy will have reached its GDP growth potential, so that figure could represent its structural jobless rate. This decline in the unemployment rate, the starting point of which was 26% at the lowest point in the economic cycle, is substantial. But it will still be high compared with other eurozone countries.
Spain’s medium-sized banks are prime targets in the next expected round of sector consolidation. But these lenders need to improve their P&L accounts ahead of further integration.
The free-trade agreement between the U.S., Japan and another nine Asia-Pacific countries (TTP) should speed up the negotiations between the European Union and the U.S. regarding The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). These talks started over five years ago and there have been, and continue to be, some critical moments.
Although starting from a low base, credit in the Eurozone is gradually and consistently improving in line with the modest recovery in activity. In August, credit to companies and households grew 0.8% year-on-year compared with the 1.6% decline registered a year earlier.
After seven years of crisis, Spain’s economic model is tending towards what it was in the past. The country ‘s tourism industry is a leader in terms of competitiveness. Furthermore, last summer the sector performed the best it has for a decade.