The sale of Telefonica’s O2 to Hong Kong telecoms giant Hutchison remains up in the air. And the European Commission (EC), which has the final responsibility for the outcome of the transaction, is still being a dog in a manger, under pressure from the UK authorities.
Spain’s tourism sector is on course for another record year in 2106, if the January figures are anything to go by. It looks like Spaniards are going to be on the move at Easter, both at home and overseas, taking advantage of currency depreciations in tourism destinations like Brazil.
Many respected analysts believe that GDP growth will be closer to 5% than the 6.5% announced by the Chinese authorities in their latest five-year plan. As a result of this, these analysts expect a rise in social unrest. And the Chinese government’s goal of reducing industrial overcapacity by firing 5-6 million employees in so-called “zombie companies” over the next 2-3 years will serve to heighten tensions.
Caixabank is conscious of the fact that the Spanish market is running out of steam and that the future lies in having a strong presence abroad, like its two bigger Spanish rivals (Santander and BBVA). So it is relaunching its initiative to fully acquire Banco Portugues de Investimento (BP), in which it currently holds 44%. It also announced three dividends for 2016.
Trading volumes on the Spanish stock market have been worse than those of its European peers in February. This gives the impression that investors are rejecting Spain’s bourse, either because of political uncertainty, its exposure to Brazil, or else the eternal doubts about some of the Spanish banks.
The economic world is deeply divided over whether or not we are facing a new recession. And some people are putting forward sufficiently solid arguments which easily eliminate any doubts on the subject. Although there is data to support the doubts existing in both the US and Europe, it’s also true that there are solid economic fundamentals which defend the thesis that a recession doesn’t seem to be imminent.
The European Banking Authority (EBA) has finished defining the nature of the stress tests, as well as the scenarios the 51 largest European banks will be subject to in 2016. But given the situation of the Italian and German lenders, after the last stress test, there are more and more people who believe there is a certain amount of complicity going on to hide the real situation of many of the banks in both countries.
In 2015, the Eurozone once again saw positive credit flows and a recovery in credit balance rates as a result of new transactions. But volumes are still well off pre-crisis maximum levels. In Spain, what does limit credit demand is the fact that companies have had positive financing capacity for the last seven years, which means that those with less debt have a strong self-financing buffer.
History is repeating itself. In January 2014, Spanish firm Sacyr revealed that the extension of the Panama Canal had produced a cost overrun of 1.2 billion euros. Now it’s the turn of the consortium handling the Meca-Medina AVE high-speed train project. Is there a risk that these situations could damage the image of the Spanish firms involved?
We are nearly eight years on from the crisis, the effects of which have been particularly devastating for the weaker social classes. This has led to an unsustainable unemployment rate, as well as inequality, in countries like Spain. So now some people are beginning to wonder whether productive capitalism is ailing, given how difficult it is to recover pre-crisis levels.