LONDON | By Barclays analysts | The latest disappointing inflation and growth data have reinforced market expectations of ECB action(s) in June. The significant rally of short rates seems consistent with expectations of a policy rates cut, as well as a chance of additional liquidity injections. At this stage, we see limited room for a further rally and suggest paying tactically 1y Eonia.
MADRID | By Fernando Barciela | As the election day approaches, we bring you a series of special interviews focused on economic perspectives for the EU citizens and companies. Today we focus on the telecom sector, which is experiencing a deep transformation in the continent. Former chairman of Spanish Telefonica Luis Solana, currently responsible for the company’s entrepreneurship activities, comments on the main challenges ahead, as well as the need of surveillancance over the EU banking and energy sectors, and the inevitable downsizing of the welfare state in the region. Nonetheless, he was a socialist elected MP in Spain for five years during the transition period.
MADRID | By Álex García.
At first glance, Norway and Switzerland seem to have much in common. Both are prosperous alpine nations with relatively small populations (5.1 million and 8 million), while they also have some of the lowest unemployment levels in Europe (3.6% and 3.5%). In fact, both nations are enjoying tremendous success amid turbulent economic times. Norway , however, will not seek to emulate Switzerland’s policy on immigration quotas.
MADRID | By Miguel Navascués | Nobody questions Germany’s big efforts in the EZ, but Spain accumulates an external debt of 100% of GDP as Germany accumulates capital abroad amounting for 100% of its. When a country does not cease to make external surpluses, it generates parallel deficits in others. These gaps are corrected by means of a rate exchange appreciation- depreciation or by reinvesting the surplus in the countries in deficit. Neither of which is happening today.
MADRID | By Jaime Santisteban | The most critical voice about the ECB’s doing something about the euro zone’s persistent low inflation, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, said on Monday that the ECB will watch the euro’s exchange rate closely before taking policy decisions. Also, AstraZeneca turned down the allegedly “last” bid offer from Pfizer, worth €8bn.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | 2014 was supposed to be different. After three years of disappointment, this was meant to be the year when the global economy had a broader, higher and more persistently solid level of growth – at least, this was the consensus narrative. In the end, the seasonally adjusted quarterly rate of global growth in Q1 was among the weakest of the recovery. US growth was near zero (probably negative after revisions) and China’s GDP growth was below already low forecasts.
MADRID | The Corner | Remember when back in 2005, politicians in Paris stood up in arms amid rumours of Pepsi trying to bid for Danone? That operation never saw the light but from now France’s government will have more power to block foreign takeovers in strategic industries such as energy, transport and telecom. It’s a “necessary rearmement for the Government,” argues Economy and Industry minister Arnaud Montebourg, who stopped the Dailymotion acquisition and recently appeared in a national magazine wearing the iconic marinière T-shirt, a French brand watch and holding a Moulinex mixer. Economic patriotism that might be useful before the EU elections but can also hurt a state in need of foreign investment.
MADRID | By Francisco López | In the midst of the euro crisis, Spanish political leaders and some economists showed off about good figures of Spain’s public debt compared to Italy’s. Then, this indicator was a good example that reflected the strengh of national public finances. Now it has turned into a constraint, although fortunately investors do not doubt on the country’s ability to pay back.
MADRID | By Jaime Santisteban | Stock indexes struggle to stay in the course after widespread drops, although weakness losses intensity. The EZ grew by 0.2% in 1Q14 (0.9% y-o-y), half the estimates, strongly disappointing market makers. This speed won’t be enough to support recovery.