Francesco Saraceno | According to Wren-Lewis, central banks were not involved in the push towards fiscal consolidation, and their “only” sin was of not being vocal enough. I think he is too nice. At least in the Eurozone, the ECB was a key actor in pushing austerity.
Market timing has long been the holy grail for investors, and evidence suggests that it works but might be a tricky game to play.
Caixin | Until recently, Chinese officials could rest assured that their path on the bureaucratic ladder went only upward, unless they were punished for some reason, usually corruption. No more. A policy passed in June 2015 by the Communist Party’s second-highest decision-making body, the 25-member Politburo, stipulated that officials should be demoted for failing to meet the requirements of their post.
UBS | The increase in positioning as of the latest CFTC report dated April 12 confirms persistent interest to hold gold and in a sense highlights that patience among market participants is becoming increasingly stretched. Many have been waiting for a deeper price correction to build gold positions or to add to current longs, but this has so far been elusive.
Fernando Rodríguez | The last executive to leave Abengoa is Jose Dominguez Abascal, executive chairman from the end of 2015, who has resigned from the company’s board. This departure, as well as that of the over 2,000 executives and employees “have hardly affected its share price”, says Renta 4 Banco.
UBS | As expected, yesterday’s ECB meeting provided neither new stimulus nor major new guidance on the policy outlook. The discussion was dominated by helicopter money (which according to Mr Draghi has not been discussed), the German criticism of the ECB’s low interest rate policy (which Mr Draghi diplomatically rejected) and the issue of whether or not interest rates could go down further (which could happen, if necessary).
Francesco Saraceno | I computed real GDP of the periphery (Spain-Ireland-Portugal-Greece) and of the core (Germany-Netherlands-Austria-Finland), and then I took the difference of yearly growth rates in three subperiods that correspond to the run-up to the single currency, to the euro “normal times”, and to the crisis.
James Alexander via Historinhas | As the FOMC increasingly avers that it is data-driven the demand to have better data has led to greater focus on aggregated current data. Whether the FOMC really looks at it, given it is ignoring its own Labour Market Conditions Index, is hard to say.
BofAML | No surprises. We do not expect any ECB action this week. After the package in March, we think the ECB will have a few months before going back to the drawing board. Dovish Fed tones and EUR appreciation do not help the ECB, but action beyond a reiteration of forward guidance seems very unlikely.
According to figures of last IOSCO’s report on market risks, since 2012, the volumes of equity IPOs (initial public offering) have been on a strong upward trend, reaching $934 billion in 2014, above the pre-crisis peak.