UBS | Global trade in goods and services has risen to a record share of the world economy in real terms. In nominal terms it has stagnated – which basically tells us that the price of traded goods and services is falling relative to the price of non-traded goods and services. Hardly surprising given where oil is.
BARCLAYS | Having largely pre-released numbers with its trading statement the focus from Repsol’s 4Q results is on whether or not the group will be able to retain its Investment Grade credit rating, given the prevailing environment.
Avangrid, the company born of the merger between Iberdrola and UIL assets, is going to launch a $ 9.600 billion investment plan until 2020.
C.Peel, T.Docal and C.Sweeting via Caixin | Collapsing oil prices have clearly caused financial disruptions. There will likely be bankruptcies and credit-crisis events among over-leveraged and high-cost producers.
UBS | Between 2010 and 2014 global investors showed tremendous generosity towards EM, helping it issue forever larger amounts, and easily roll over debt coming due. In 2015 sentiment began to sour, and the primary market is even less benign today.
BARCLAYS | Spanish airport operator AENA, the world’s largest by number of passengers, has reported a strong end to 2015 driven by a combination of strong passenger growth, tight control of opex and lower-than-expected financing charges. Aena’s IPO in 2015 was Spain’s biggest since the financial crisis.
Sovereign wealth funds could sell nearly $404 billion of stocks in the course of this year if crude prices remain low, according to predictions by the Institute of Sovereign Wealth Funds. This would mean doubling the divestments made in 2015, which totalled $213.4 billion.
BARCLAYS | In chess, the concept of zugzwang refers to a point in the game where any change in the status quo weakens a player’s position. The ideal choice would be to not make a move, except that “pass” is not an option. This concept effectively explains the choices that confront China’s policy makers.
Nick Ottens via Atlantic Sentinel | Italy’s prime minister, Matteo Renzi, has lately taken a hard line against the rest of the European Union, warning that German-inspired austerity is fanning the flames of populism.
UBS | In this note we present our updated analysis of OPEC production capacity. On a headline basis the numbers are alarming – we expect the group to add close to 1Mb/d to its effective production capacity in 2016 and then a further 0.6Mb/d in 2017. Over the 2015- 20 period we expect total additions of 2.1Mb/d