UBS | In the euro Area €865bn of gross issuance is expected in 2016, €24bn less than 2015. We forecast the majority of countries to see a fall in issuance vs 2015. Issuance net of redemptions and coupons in 2016 is anticipated to be around +€56bn, slightly less than 2015. Net supply is non – supportive for bonds in 1Q16.
Zhang Yuzhe via Caixin | China’s membership in the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) will help link its firms and financial institutions to projects backed by the well-established development bank, a senior central bank official says.
UBS | Current year in Asia we expect c.8% return (in U$) driven primarily by earnings, from a 6% growth in revenues and a modest expansion of margins. We think multiples will be unchanged as a re-rating is unlikely given ongoing ‘Debtopia’ headwinds, and historically low valuations make further de-rating also less likely
Benjamin Cole via Historinhas | Probably, He Is Right. Among serious economists, the words “print more money” are not used, and of course the thought is sacrilege for many. Evidently, some prefer a decade or so of 20+% unemployment (see Spain, Greece), or the perennial loss of about 10% of GDP (the United States) to the idea of printing more money.
UBS | 2015 has seen a sharp decline in oil prices, and we exit the year at around a 7-year low. However, we see reasons to be upbeat – we are certainly more optimistic than we have been for the past 2 years, and more constructive than merely extrapolating from current market conditions.
UBS | 2015 was likely to mark the fifth year of EM underperformance. The last time EM underperformed for as extended a spell as this was 1997-2001. And what a time to buy that was! Could 2016 provide a similar inflexion point? We would bet against it.
Yiannis Mouzakis via Macropolis | During 2015, Greece’s ability to meet its debt obligations became one of the most drama-ridden aspects of a story that started unfolding when SYRIZA won the January elections.
UBS | We expect the primary investor focus in 2016 to remain on interest rates but some key debates should shift a long with the environment. A few of the debates we propose and analyze include: Will the realization of earnings from rates matter next year? How will investor perception of asset sensitivity evolve as rates start to rise? Will earnings from higher rates lead to less pricing discipline by trust banks? Is the M&A cycle peaking?
Jean Pisani-Ferry via Caixin | For the first time in several decades, a series of Western countries are simultaneously experiencing major political upheaval. In several of them, populist parties that challenge consensual principles and established policies, and candidates who define themselves as anti-system outsiders, are on the rise or already in power.
Medea Benjamin | It would certainly be easy to do a piece about ten horrible events from 2015—from the ongoing war in Syria and the refugee crisis, to the attacks in Beirut, Paris and San Bernardino, to the rise of Donald Trump and Islamophobia. But that wouldn’t be a very inspiring way to bid farewell to this year and usher in a new one. So let’s look at ten reasons to feel better about 2015.