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European economy

alemania ampelmann

European economy 24th November 2023

Germany’s final GDP revised down 1/10th of percentage point to 0.4%, one quarter short of technical recession

Bankinter: 3Q 2023 GDP (final) is revised down one tenth of a percentage point (year-on-year) with respect to the preliminary figure, unchanged quarter-on-quarter. 0.4% (year-on-year) versus -0.3% preliminary and versus +0.0% previously. In the quarter-on-quarter comparison, -0.1% same as preliminary and against +0.1% previously. Assessment: In year-on-year terms GDP is revised down by one tenth of a percentage point. This means a return to negative year-on-year growth rates after +0.0%…

BCE Sept 2023 4

European economy 16th November 2023

Profit margins provide sufficient cushion for prices to rise less than wages; ECB to wait for wage deceleration before starting cuts

Morgan Stanley: Eurozone inflation is clearly on a downward trajectory. After October’s 2.9%Y in October, we expect inflation to be 2.4%Y in 2024 and 2.0%Y in 2025 and although the main risk is the pass-through of wage growth to prices we believe that profit margins provide a sufficient cushion to keep prices from rising as much as wages. However, inflation will continue to be exposed to gas price increases as…

eurozone

European economy, In Europe 15th November 2023

Eurozone GDP down 0.1%, employment up 0.3% in Q3

CdM| In the third quarter of 2023, seasonally adjusted GDP declined by 0.1% in the euro area and remained stable in the EU, compared with the previous quarter, according to a flash estimate released by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the second quarter of 2023, GDP had grown by 0.2 per cent in the euro area and remained stable in the EU. Compared with the same…

Alemania PIB

European economy 11th November 2023

Germany’s inflation falls to 2021 lows after moderating to 3.8% in October; core stands at 4.3%.

CdM | Germany’s inflation stood at August 2021 lows after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) moderated to 3.8% in October, in line with the initial and consensus estimate, which is seven tenths lower than the previous month, according to confirmed data from Destatis, the federal statistics office. Compared with the previous month, German prices were unchanged in October. In particular, prices for energy products stood at 3.2 per cent, below…

Alemania industria

European economy 8th November 2023

Germany’s new drop in industrial production, down -1.4% in September, again fuels fears of protracted recession

Bankinter : Industrial Production falls more than expected in September and remains in negative territory for the fifth consecutive month. Industrial Production (September) falls -1.4% m/m against -0.1% expected and -0.1% previous (revised from -0.2%). By items: Manufacturing & Mining -1.7%; Intermediate Goods -1.9%; Capital Goods -0.2%; Consumer Goods (-4.9%); Energy -1.7%; Construction 0%. Assessment: Again, another bad Industrial Production reading, one that will once again fuel fears of a…

ryanair aviones

European economy 6th November 2023

Ryanair posts adjusted net profit of €1.515bn in fiscal Q2 and announces €0.35/share dividend this year

Bankinter : The airline reports solid 1H fiscal results and announces dividend payment. Key figures versus market consensus (Bloomberg): Revenues €4,926M (+23%) vs €4,874M estimated; EPS (adjusted) €1,515M (+26%) vs €1,493M estimated; EPS (adjusted) €1.324 vs €1.337. Passengers reached €105.4M (+11%) and Occupancy Rate 95%. Prices are +24% higher than last year. Highlights: (i) Announces that it will pay a dividend this year of €400M (€0.35/share), which represents a dividend…

Innovation Europe

European economy, In Europe 6th November 2023

Euro area aggregate GDP falls by one-tenth of a percentage point in 3Q23, highlighting credit tightening

Intermoney| Euro area aggregate GDP fell by one-tenth of a percentage point in 3Q23, highlighting the transmission of tighter credit conditions. But we should not magnify the stumble of the aggregate if we take into account that Germany, which accounts for 30% of GDP, fell by -0.3% q/qtr. However, we see a series of favourable factors for the EMU countries’ economies to hold up at moderate rates over the coming…

alemania brandenburgo

European economy, In Europe 2nd November 2023

German GDP falls as CPI slows

Bankinter| Germany’s economy and inflation surprised positively in 3Q23. GDP declined -0.3% year-on-year in the period compared to -0.7% expected and +0.0% previous (it was revised up from -0.2%). On a quarter-on-quarter basis, growth was -0.1% compared to -0.2% expected and +0.1% previously (revised from +0.0%). On the CPI side, the headline rate rose by +3.8% year-on-year compared to +4.0% expected and +4.5% previously. On a month-on-month basis, inflation was…

europa inversion

European economy 30th October 2023

EU directive to claw back excess exemptions on foreign dividends would save taxpayers €5.17 billion a year

Banca March | Last July, the European Commission published the proposal for the so-called Faster directive, to achieve more efficient taxation of European capital market returns. At the Congress of the Association of Tax Inspectors held late last week, the Spanish Ministry of Finance shared its progress towards a regulation that would free investors from tedious processes to recover excess withholding taxes. The Treasury hopes that Ecofin will be able…