Ana Racionero (Intermoney )| In Europe, the PMIs showed the bill that is being paid for the ECB’s rate hikes. The downturn was of great magnitude and, what is worse, anticipates recession in the eurozone, specifically, a contraction of around -0.2%/-0.3% in the third quarter, after having grown by 0.3% in the previous quarter. Although France’s manufacturing rose in August from 45.1 in July to 46.4, when a decline to…
Link Securities | According to data from the European Central Bank (ECB), the eurozone recorded a current account surplus of €36.8 billion in June, compared with a deficit of €4.4 billion in the same month a year earlier. June’s surplus is the largest current account surplus achieved by the region since September 2021. This surplus was driven by the goods account, which went on to generate a surplus of €42.7…
CdM: The eurozone’s private sector activity has deteriorated significantly during the month of August, when in addition to the fall in activity in the manufacturing sector there has also been a worsening in services, according to advance data from the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and reported by Europa Press, which suggest a contraction in the eurozone’s GDP of 0.2% in the third quarter of 2023. Specifically, the advance estimate of…
Banca March| German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, Germany’s finance minister and a member of the Green party, is proposing restrictions on sectors where Chinese influence could pose a threat to Western economic security. These include semiconductors, artificial intelligence and quantum computing. These measures are framed in a context of debate and criticism of China’s geopolitical situation; authoritarianism in the country, military threats against Taiwan and ties with Russia. On the…
CdM| After a first quarter in which the economy showed no progress, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the eurozone recorded growth of 0.3% in the second quarter, according to the preliminary estimate published by Eurostat, the EU’s statistics office. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.6% in the euro zone. For its part, in the European Union (EU) as a whole,…
CdM: Investor confidence in the euro area rebounds more than expected. In August, the Sentix index stands at -18.9 from -22.5 in July. The consensus expected it to fall further to -23.4. This puts an end to three consecutive months of declines. The data was driven entirely by an increase in the future expectations indicator, which rose 7.3 points to -17.3. However, the figure still “underscores current recessionary conditions” and…
CoM| A deepening slowdown in manufacturing and near stagnation of activity in the services sector means that the eurozone has started the third quarter with the fastest contraction in total activity since November last year, according to the PMI index. “The second half of the year has got off to a bad start for the euro area economy. Judging by the PMI index, total economic activity fell in July after…
Bankinter: The Unemployment Rate has come out better than expected and remained at historical lows, showing the strength of the labour market. Unemployment Rate (June): 6.4% vs 6.5% expected and 6.4% previous (revised from 6.5%). Assessment: June’s figure repeated May’s and remained at historic lows. Following last week’s European GDP and CPI data, employment figures continue to show the strength of the labour market. With inflation slowing and employment supporting…
Bankinter : 2Q2023 GDP (preliminary) stood at +0.6% vs +0.5% estimated and +1.1% previous (revised from +1.0%). In quarter-on-quarter terms +0.3% vs +0.2% estimated and -0.1% previously. Assessment: The economy was supported by countries more dependent on the Services Sector, while the worst evolution responded to those more dependent on the Manufacturing Sector such as Germany (two consecutive quarters in negative). The recovery process is slow due to the lower…
The year-on-year inflation rate in the euro area fell by two tenths of a percentage point in July compared to the previous month, reaching 5.3%, which is the lowest increase in prices since January 2022, according to Eurostat’s preliminary estimate, which nevertheless maintains the underlying rate at 5.5%. The moderation in the rise in prices in July is mainly due to the 6.1% fall in the cost of energy, compared…