Crédito y Caución expects the Russian invasion of Ukraine to cut Eurozone GDP growth by one percentage point to 2.9% in 2022, due to supply chain disruption, higher commodity prices and the adverse impact on business and consumer confidence. This impact assessment, subject to a high level of uncertainty, is based on two assumptions: that the conflict will not continue beyond 2022 and that sanctions will be strengthened but not…
Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | Global GDP growth is expected to slow in 2022, as price pressures are rising due to supply chaindisruptions, strong consumer demand and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In some markets, we already saw a partial return to normality in 2021 in insolvency developments. Forinstance, in Spain, Italy and Czech Republic, insolvencies started to rise in 2021 after they declined in 2020. For the majority of markets, however,…
Car registrations in Europe (EU+EFTA+UK) fell by 18.8% YoY in March to 1.127 million units, according to ACEA data. Most countries in the region recorded double-digit sales declines, including the five key markets: Spain (-30.2%), Italy (-29.7%), France (-19.5%), Germany (-17.5%) and the UK (-14.3%). As a result, first quarter sales declined by 10.6% YoY in the region to 2.75 million units. All manufacturers suffered double-digit declines; Jaguar sales fell…
Renta 4 | The latest report published by Levelten, a renewable transactions consultant and PPA market operator, states that the prices of PPAs signed in Europe reached €57/MWh (blended solar and wind), which represents an increase of 27.5% vs. the first quarter of 2021 and 8.6% in this quarter alone. Solar PPAs in Spain averaged €38/MWh, 12% higher (€4/MWh) than in 1Q21, being the country with the lowest solar PPA…
Fernando González Urbaneja | Last week the Euribor started to trade in positive, five thousandths of a point insignificant, but positive. Since February 2016 the Euribor had been negative, down to a minimum of half a point. Several million Spanish mortgages will be more expensive today than yesterday, although less than tomorrow. The European Central Bank opted weeks ago for a progressive and cautious strategy towards the neutrality of its…
The management of the Italian airports of Fiumicino and Ciampino, and the control of the toll payment system Telepass, make Atlantia a strategic company for Italy, as the Spanish newspaper 5 Días recalls today. And Mario Draghi’s government, according to various stock market analysts, will not hesitate to use all its influence to prevent the infrastructure operator from ending up in foreign hands. This is one of the barriers threatening…
Fernando González Urbaneja | Uncontrolled inflation, in Spain and in Europe, leads to an immediate monetary response in the form of a less accommodative central bank monetary policy, i.e. less money available and a higher price for that dwindling money. Implementing such a policy is not easy, it is necessary to mix rigour with gentleness, with temperance. The risk of going too far is as real as the risk of…
The proposal to reform fiscal rules presented by Spain and the Netherlands to the Eurogroup on Monday has been warmly welcomed. The European Commission likes what the document says. “It’s going in the right direction”, said the Commissioner for the Economy, Paolo Gentiloni, at the end of the Eurogroup meeting on Monday, in which all the finance ministers of the euro area are represented. The Italian also acknowledged that the…
It is true that there are economies in the eurozone with greater problems than Spain’s and whose prices are much higher, such as the three Baltic republics – Lithuania (13.9%), Estonia (12.4%) and Latvia (8.9%) – as well as Belgium (9.6%) and Slovakia (8.2%). But the rest are on a par… or below. In Germany, year-on-year inflation is already at 7.3% after rising 2.2 points from February. It is the…
Renta 4 | The ECB plans to require banks to include the effects of the war in Ukraine in the internal capital adequacy assessment process as it is dragging on longer than expected. The ECB wants banks to include analyses of various scenarios on the impact of second-round derivatives as a result of the war, such as downward revision of economic growth. Opinion: We consider the ECB’s request to be…