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European politics 1st January 2021

Five Tools We Need To Fight Disinformation

Miroslava Sawiris | According to the GLOBSEC Trends 2020 report, across Central and Eastern Europe, 34% believe that COVID-19 is a hoax designed to manipulate populations. With hundreds of deaths around the world occurring as a result of disinformation related to the coronavirus, the pandemic has demonstrated the critical importance of limiting the impact of disinformation on our societies. Yearly profit generated by disinformation websites come to $235 M, estimates the Global Disinformation Index.

BrexitDeal

European politics 28th December 2020

Brexit Christmas Eve Gift: A Deal “In Extremis” And Decaffeinated, But A Deal

After 47 years of membership in the EU and 1,645 days since the British citizens voted their way out, finally early in the afternoon of the 24th, negotiators Michel Barnier and David Frost reported on the agreement on the conditions of exit and their new commercial relationship, which amount to near €900 Bn annually. This last minute deal avoids one of the biggest risks facing the Eurozone in recent years, but it is “vague in many aspects” and “both parties will force specific changes in the future”, say analysts.

academic experts consider what adoption of the 585-page draft Withdrawal Agreement would mean

European politics 24th December 2020

The EU and UK Agree a Brexit Deal

Ranko Berich (Monex Europe) | The details of the deal will be digested by markets over the coming weeks, after traders have finished digesting Christmas lunch. Given the lack of fanfare over services provisions, the EU has likely retained the prerogative for equivalence recognition, importantly for financial services. If this is indeed the case this deal is at best a disincentive for investment in financial services in the UK, and at worst hangs a sword of damocles above the City and the wider economy.

brexit

European politics 19th December 2020

What Are Australian-Style And Canadian-Style Brexit Trade Deals?

David Collins via The Conversation | The terms “Australian-style” or “Canadian-style” Brexit are meant to convey to the British public the kind of trade relationship they can expect with the EU if no preferential free trade agreement (FTA) is concluded between the UK and the EU at the end of the transition period. They are a short-hand way of telling the public that it is perfectly normal not to be a member of the EU or Single Market, because both Australia and Canada manage this and remain functional and amicable trading partners with the EU. 

European Union

European politics 5th December 2020

‘Sovereign Europe, hostile world: Five agendas to protect Europe’s capacity to act’

This detailed study is authored by experts Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro, and examines how the EU and its member states can develop European and national-level policies to strengthen Europe’s resilience in the face of increasing geo-political competition. The report identifies five areas – healthcare, security and defence, technology, international economic policy, and action on climate change – where there is room for development.

Rutte

European politics 3rd December 2020

Consensus Among Major Dutch Political Parties

Nick Ottens (Atlantic Sentinel) | Earlier this month, I took an in-depth look at the draft election manifesto of the Netherlands’ ruling liberal party (VVD), which is likely to win the next election. (Disclosure: I’m a party member.). Now that most other parties have released their manifestos as well, it’s possible to make a comparison.

VictorOrbanok

European politics 30th November 2020

EU Must Hold Firm in Rule-of-Law Dispute with Hungary, Poland

EU leaders — including Orbán and his Polish counterpart, Mateusz Morawiecki — agreed in September to tie the disbursement of EU funds to compliance with the rule of law. The conditionality is not automatic. To withhold funds, a qualified majority of fifteen out of 27 member states, representing 65 percent of the EU’s population, would need to agree (…) But if the proposal were meaningless, Orbán and Morawiecki wouldn’t be fighting it. They understand it could be used to rein them in — which is exactly why the rest of the EU must hold firm.

gbpusdok 1

European politics 23rd November 2020

BREXIT After US Elections And Promising Covid-19 Vaccines

The -2.5% underperformance of UK real GDP growth relative to OECD countries over the last 4 years (to 31/12/2019) clearly signals the damaging impact Brexit has had on business confidence. Brexit uncertainty has led to slower investment, with firms instead building up cash buffers from ~16% up to ~19% of GDP. The opportunity cost of this saving is the slower rate of GDP growth experienced.

Russias Putin

European politics 17th November 2020

What Is Russia’s Stake in the Nagorno-Karabakh War?

Dumitru Minzarari (Via Fair Observer) | s the world discusses the sudden cessation of fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh and the deployment of Russian “peacekeepers” to the region to monitor the truce, one critically important question is overlooked: Why did Russia not discourage Azerbaijan’s military offensive? A powerful security rationale implies a strong Russian interest in deterring a war that might change the regional status quo. Preserving a favorable status quo, by strategic logic, is the central security interest of a regional hegemon like Russia.