Europe’s virus resurgence weighs on growth momentum: a sharp rise in virus cases has dampened European growth momentum, with the Euro area composite PMI new orders declining from a peak of 53 in July to 50 in September, following the sharp rebound from a trough of 14 in April. Weaker domestic growth momentum, in combination with uncertainty on US fiscal stimulus and rising real bond yields, has led the Stoxx 600 to decline by 5% over the past week to a two-month low of 355.
UK’s equity market has trailed Europe’s considerably this year. The UK’s FTSE 100 Index is down over 20% while Euro Stoxx 600 Index is down just over 11% year-to-date in sterling and euros respectively. If we compare the two in Euros, the UK fares even worse on account of Sterling’s weakness relative to the Euro – another sign of the UK being hurt more by the risk of Brexit disruption and uncertainty.
European Views | Across Europe, real estate markets which were already daunting for lower-income buyers – like Germany or Portugal – are set to become even more gruelling because of new economic stresses caused by the pandemic. 40% of young people in Europe who are at risk of poverty consider prohibitive housing costs, one of the chief contributors to their plight, while a similar percentage of low-income earners already struggle with overcrowded living situations.
Peter Isackson | The Guardian offered its readers what is certainly the most comic and hyperreal sentence of the week when it reported that “Boris Johnson accused the EU of preparing to go to ‘extreme and unreasonable lengths’ in Brexit talks as he defended breaching international law amid a mounting rebellion from Tory backbenchers.”
This morning (Wednesday 16 September), the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, delivered her ‘State of the Union’ address before the European Parliament in Brussels.
Compared to 2019, when the entire market was eagerly watching events surrounding Brexit, both the Covid-19 crisis and the U.S. elections are attracting more attention than the imminent end of the transition phase. However, the clock is ticking without mercy, as EU chief negotiator Barnier keeps reminding us. In light of the time it will take for legal processes in the UK, as well as on the continent, only a few weeks remain to avert a disruptive UK exit from the European common market, DWS explain.
European Views | Protests against pandemic lockdown measures have been gaining momentum across the world, but it’s events in Germany that have caught international attention. The latest demonstration in Berlin at the end of August drew some 30,000 people out of their homes – and the sheer range of ideologies on display from anti-vaxxers to ecologist to the far right, has re-opened a debate in the country about what it means to participate in the modern-day political process.
London-listed stocks rallied yesterday as the pound sank, after Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that the UK will walk away from Brexit negotiations if a deal is not reached by mid-October.
John Bruton | It is increasingly likely that, unless things change, on January 1, 2021, we will have a no-deal Brexit. That would mean the only deal between the European Union and the United Kingdom would be the already ratified EU withdrawal agreement of 2019. Both Ireland and the European Union need their best team on the pitch as Brexit approaches the endgame.
The EU’s SURE programme, providing loans to help finance short-time work (even retrospectively) is in high demand. The recovery fund “Next Generation EU” was the big deal this summer. But more complicated news may be next, points BoA Global Research. Technical details and national approval processes are not completed and could be the source of less reassuring headlines, explains the firm.