Lidia Conde (Frankfurt) | What do we save, the climate or the economy, at a moment when globalisation is accelerating, impacting above all on the middle class? What is the third way in this stage of history when artificial intelligence and automation is creating ever more social conflict? Germany is debating the future.
After long hours of discussions, the UK and the EU negotiating teams reached a deal before a meeting of European leaders in Brussels. The legal text (which you can read here) will still need the approval of both the UK and European parliaments.
David Alexander Meier (Julius Baer) | Thursday’s EU summit is the last date to secure a deal before Saturday’s ‘deal or delay’ deadline. Due to difficulties in finding a deal and parliamentary ratification, we rather expect a delay. We remain short-term Neutral on the pound given a delay and long-term Bullish, as the only way to Brexit is through a deal.
Caixabank Research | Having grown at an acceptable 2,8% in 2017, Germany slowed sharply in 2018 and, in the last four quarters, interannual growth has on average been a miserable 0.8%. In the second quarter, in fact, growth was negative, and everything point to this tendency being maintained in the third quarter, which would mean entering a technical recession. Below we analyse why.
Fernando G. Urbaneja | Portugal evicted its dictatorship a couple of years before Spain (in 1974), although it had also embraced it a few years before (in 1923). The country suffered an authoritarian regime, such as Spain, during the central four decades of the twentieth century. Portugal and Spain are two neighboring countries with shared and divergent stories, which however live on their backs although they have more things in common than current opinion admits. We are seeing some interesting unwanted similarities -and the Portuguese are ahead of the curve.
Nick Malkoutzis (Macropolis) | Over recent weeks, there has been much talk from government officials about a “new Greece” emerging after the July elections. This has been supported by legislation that has already been passed, such as interventions in the way the country is governed, and the draft laws that are being lined up, such as the development bill, which is seen by New Democracy as a bureaucracy-buster that will pave the way for more investment.
Valerio Alfonso Bruno (via Fair Observer) | Matteo Salvini’s League party takes advantage of the frustration felt by Italians living in poverty to fuel xenophobia and hatred toward immigrants.
Alvise Lennkh (Scope Ratings) | Portugal is set to maintain a recent record of political stability and fiscal prudence after the ruling Socialist Party’s strong electoral showing even though a new coalition or minority government may have to make concessions to left-wing allies.
Industrial Production in Spain rebounded strongly in August. Specifically, it advanced to + 1.7% a / avs. + 0.6% estimated and + 1.2% above (revised upwards from + 0.8%).
(European Views) | The EU and Japan last week signed an infrastructure agreement aimed at linking Europe and Asia in a barely veiled bid to counter China’s controversial Belt and Road Initiative.