Yiannis Mouzakis via Macropolis | As Greece stands on the cusp of exiting the third, and final, of its painful bailouts, there is a discussion about the terms under which it is exiting and how they compare to the conditions that were on offer the last time the country was close to the MoU finishing line, about four years ago. Examining the two cases is actually a useful exercise – not just for Greek crisis veterans.
Within the framework of the comercial dispute that the US has opened with the EU, the Trump administration has launched a special crusade against the producers of black olives in Spain. According to US authorities, they have been exported to the US at “dumping prices” and damaged the Californian olive sector. The US Commerce Department began investigations in July last year on the Spanish industry, which are awaiting final confirmation. The definitive decision will be known today Tuesday.
Israel Rafalovich | A remarkable summit between the EU and China in Beijing was marked by a turning point in Chinese views of the European Union. The summit unblocked talks about further opening of Chinese and EU market access and investment and speed up negotiations over geographical indications.
Where the euro may go in 2018 is such a central question and will have implications for global asset markets around the world. Christopher Gannatti, head of research at Wisdom Tree, thinks that “forecasting currencies is very much like putting together a puzzle”, at times requiring just as much art as data.
What will happen? Is the debate more economic or political? What probability is there that in the end there is no Brexit? According to the economist oat Morgan Stanley in the UK, former Treasury Secretary of Tony Blair, there is a 60% chance of a soft Brexit or “partial integration of the UK in the EU”.
Israel Rafalovich | As the European Union embarks on a new round of trade talks voice are heard in the European Commission for the EU to enforce environmental and social clauses in commercial agreements. The French government presented at this year Environmental Council a proposal to add compliance with the Paris Climate Agreement as an essential element of the region trade agreements.
BoAML think that national fiscal buffers will be the only device to face the next cyclical downturn. In fact, with a fairly mild cyclical shock, the Stability and Growth Pact would be severely stressed. The solution can be a growth-stabilising euro area budget. If not, monetary policy may have limited further space.
Julius Baer’s focus today lies on the NATO summit. Donald Trump has promised the American taxpayers to make Europe pay more for its own defence. The official target is 2% of gross domestic product, but most European countries spend way below.
J.L.M. Campuzano | The ECB calculates that its extreme expansionary monetary measures have contributed nearly two points to European growth since 2014. The question now is whether the benefits of maintaining them outweigh the risks of prolonging excessively lax financial conditions too long.
J. P. Marín-Arrese | Faced with a humiliating snub from Parliament, Ms May had to drop plans for going ahead with a hard Brexit, whatever the price. As she has suddenly switched to a confusing soft-exit proposal, Mr Davis wisely refused to carry it through. His resignation shows to what extent the UK has become cornered with no conceivable way out at hand. Johnson’s resignation shows the open rift and represents a direct challenge to Ms May’s leadership.