e have been investigating how the vote of June 23 2016 has since affected the values of Britain’s trade with major trading partners. By comparing trade flows with a model of what UK trade flows would have looked like had the UK voted to stay in the EU, we can see that British exports to both EU and non-EU countries have taken a hit.
“The narrative of expected compromises, a watering down of stances and the serving of another “Brussel’s fudge” seems to have become less convincing after the EU rejected the Italian budget proposal in an unprecedented move,” says analysts at Monex Europe regarding the rejection of Italy’s budgetary plans. In fact, for the first time in the history of the EU, the European Commission has rejected a draft budget proposal of a member country, while sounds from the Italian camp have an equally confrontational ring to it.
Israel Rafalovich | Last week’s summit was seen as the deadline for the European Union and the United Kingdom agreeing on a deal. Now this date has passed and time is running out, although theoretically there is another chance to reach a deal at the summit in December.
Next 26 October S&P will revise its rating on Italy, currently BBB with stable Outlook. It could directly lower the rating one level to BBB-. While we wait for whether this happens or not, another agency, Fitch, has cut Banca Carige’s rating from B- to CCC+ believing that the bank will have difficulties in reinforcing its capital ratios.
One of the main characteristics of the recent economic recovery in Portugal has been the surprising progress of the labour market. In fact, between 2014 and 2017, the number of jobs grew by more than 351,000, which represents an average annual growth of 1.9%, slightly higher than the average GDP growth of 1.8% in the same period. CaixaBank Research details the main factors that are contributing to this change.
This week the EU summit has been seen as the make or break summit. As the last chance to negotiate an orderly Brexit. It looked like a possibility during this intensive weekend in Brussels and it prompted rumors that a full agreement might be imminent. All of a sudden we were drowning in rumors and assertions, whirl and swirl secret deals being cooked up between the EU and the UK ahead of another crunch EU leaders summit on Wednesday.
France faces a narrow path to reconcile supply-side structural reforms and fiscal measures with demand management. The budget bill for 2019 targets a deficit at 2.8%, pretty close to the EU limit. But analysts at BoAML do not share the criticisms over lack of ambition on public spending.
Italy’s budget deficit of – 2.4% of GDP for the period 2019/2021 presented by the government increased the debt premium of 50bp to 280 bp and a 4% fall in the FTSE-MIB.This rise in the risk premium impacts negatively on the Italian banks in fundamentally three ways.
Marcus, Goldman Sachs’s retail digital bank, opened officially in the UK on 27 September. It is an investment bank which enters the retail sector and a new participant in a mature market. But for the established names, however, “it marks the beginning of something that could cause significant disruption of prices”, analysts at Santander explain.
In the initiative launched by the Italian authorities towards Brussels, the adequate single approach of avoiding confrontation and waiting to have all the information before commiting itself has been confirmed. The President of the Eurogroup reinforced this approach yesterday by recalling that the creation of a budget is a long process and that he will have to await the draft before giving a firm opinion.