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Eurozona IPC

European economy, In Europe 25th November 2024

November confidence indicators: consumer confidence falls to -13.7 (vs. -12.5) in Eurozone, and business confidence to 96 (vs. 97.4) in France

Intermoney: The confidence indicators were published yesterday in the Eurozone, both the one referring to consumers and the one referring to businessmen. Regarding the former, in the Euro zone as a whole we saw a noticeable change for the worse, with consumer confidence as compiled by the EC falling to -13.7 pts (vs. -12.5 est.). Concerning the business climate, in this case we had the national reading in France, which…

alemania recesion

In Europe 25th November 2024

Germany’s 3Q24 final GDP defies estimates, -0.3% year-on-year vs. -0.2% estimate and -0.3% prior

Bankinter: Final 3Q24 GDP data defies estimates, -0.3% year-on-year vs. -0.2% estimated and -0.3% previous. The German economy confirms its weakness and now has five consecutive quarters with negative growth rates. This evolution offers more arguments for the ECB to accelerate rate cuts in its next meetings, as we expect. This would ensure that it can implement them before the measures planned by the incoming Trump administration cause US inflation…

empleo eurozona

In Europe 21st November 2024

Eurozone hourly labour costs grow 4.6% year-on-year in 3Q24 against 5% in 2Q24

Link Securities | Eurostat published yesterday that hourly labour costs in the Eurozone rose by 4.6% year-on-year in 3Q2024, slightly less than the 5.0% (upwardly revised rate) in 2Q2024. Wages and salaries per hour worked grew by 4.5% year-on-year in the quarter, down from 4.9% in 2Q2024, while the non-wage component increased by 4.9%, down from 5.6% in the previous quarter. In the euro area’s main industrial sectors, labour costs…

Acerinox

In Europe 19th November 2024

Acerinox receives final Austrian antitrust approval for Haynes acquisition, completing all necessary clearances

Morgan Stanley | Acerinox confirmed on Friday that Austrian authorities have issued an antitrust clearance for the Haynes acquisition, reinforcing the possibility that the deal will close in 4Q24. While the deal will generate revenues immediately, given the planned $200m investment in Haynes (plus acquisition costs), it will not have a significant impact on FCF until 2028. While this should likely delay the prospect of excess shareholder returns, Ioannis Masvoulas…

Portuguese real estate has recovered remarkablyrecovery.

European economy 18th November 2024

European ratings: Moody’s maintains Portugal’s outlook at A3 stable and Fitch and S&P maintain Ireland’s at AA

Bankinter | Moody’s maintains Portugal’s rating and outlook at A3 “Stable”. For our analysts this is good news for the Portuguese economy. “The financial rating agency considers that this rating is a reflection of a competitive and diversified economy”. Moody’s forecasts GDP growth of +1.6% in 2024 and +2.2% in 2025. However, it continues to point to challenges such as the high public debt ratio, although it acknowledges that it…

alemania reichstang

European economy 15th November 2024

Germany’s October ZEW index surprises on downside with 7.4 points vs. 13.1 previously, while EU index declines to 12.5 from 20.1 previously

Link Securities | The ZEW institute published yesterday that its index measuring sentiment about Germany’s economy among major investors and analysts declined in November to 7.4 points from 13.1 points in October, also below the 13.3 points expected by FactSet’s consensus of analysts. This was negatively influenced by Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election and the collapse of the German coalition government. The index measuring their perception of…

iberdrola renovables

In Europe 12th November 2024

Iberdrola among utilities driven by 7-10% CAGR in distribution in Northern Europe and 15-20% in transmission in Germany and UK

Morgan Stanley: Our analyst Rob Pulleyn thinks it is too early to move away from the utilities theme, as he believes the market is not fully discounting the outlook: the market does not yet seem to have digested the shift in regulated utilities from “low growth dividend” companies to “quality growth” companies. In more detail, Pulleyn estimates an average CAGR of 6% in EPS by 2024-27 (versus 3% consensus) in…

IAG

European economy 11th November 2024

IAG clashes with UK tax authority over £700 million

London is claiming VAT from the airline group on the redemption of points for flights in the loyalty program. The holding company has already paid £103 million, although it disagrees and does not rule out going to court.IAG, the parent company of Iberia, British Airways, and Vueling, is clashing with the British tax authority (HMRC) over the VAT of IAG Loyalty, its loyalty subsidiary that allows the redemption of points…

bank of EnglandTC

European economy 9th November 2024

Central banks: BoE cuts rates 25 b.p. to 4.75%, Riksbank by 50 b.p. to 2.75%, Norges Bank sticks on 4.50% b.p.

Bankinter : The BoE has cut the policy rate by -25bp, as expected, to 4.75%, but sends a slightly more cautious message about the next moves. Analysis team’s view: Our central scenario pointed to a cut at this meeting. We do not expect any further moves for the rest of the year, especially given the expected pick-up in inflation in the last three months of the year and the level…

InmoColonial

European economy 8th November 2024

Colonial looking at merger with French subsidiary Société Foncière Lyonnaise

Link Securities | The Boards of Directors of Colonial (COL) and its 98.24% owned subsidiary, Société Foncière Lyonnaise (SFL), have agreed to initiate a detailed analysis for their potential merger, whereby COL would absorb SFL. The potential merger would be in line with the group’s strategy of simplifying its structure, one of the key points of which was the takeover bid launched by COL for all SFL shares in August…