Goodbye to primary market frontloading. The window for issuance before the start of the QT has closed. And therefore the pressure in some segments, such as covered bonds (+43% YTD, €70mm), is expected to ease. And although the ECB has made it clear that it will continue to participate in the primary green issuance after the start of QT, the utilities sector is the other sector that has advanced its…
The German 2Y bond yield reached 3% on Friday for the first time since 2008. Likewise, the US 2Y UST rebounded 12bps to the highest since 2007. As a consequence, the US 2s10s curve has continued to invert… to the most inverted in 42 years. Similarly, the European 2s10s curve has never been so inverted in the last 31 years.
Renta 4 : European opening with slight gains (Eurostoxx futures +0.4%, S&P futures -0.1%), on a day of numerous 4Q22 results in Spain. In the background, and on the day that marks one year of war in Ukraine, a peace proposal presented by China that does not seem to have the support of the US and the EU. Today’s macro focus will be on the US core private consumption deflator…
Renta 4 : European stock markets open slightly higher (Eurostoxx futures +0.3%, S&P futures +0.4%), supported by Nvidia which raises its guidance (IA) and boosts Nasdaq futures (+0.8%). On the macro front, the focus of the session will be on the eurozone January final CPI, which could be revised slightly higher to +8.6% overall (vs +8.5% preliminary and +9.2% previously), with core CPI stable at yearly highs +5.2%. This maintenance…
Link Securities | According to the German central bank, the Bundesbank, in its monthly bulletin, and reported yesterday by Europa Press, the German economy will probably enter recession in 1Q2023 as the evolution of GDP will be weaker than in 4Q2022, when activity contracted by 0.2%. The Bundesbank also says it is confident that this contraction in economic activity will be milder than it expected in its December projections. According…
Santander | One good one, and then… And while flows into IG funds reach record highs of $19mm YTD globally, corporate bankruptcies have also jumped to record highs in the EU. And they grew by +27% in Q4 to the highest level since Eurostat has been collecting data (2015). On the other hand, although the technical picture is undoubtedly good, the trajectory is not. And while Europe is experiencing a…
Norbolsa : The company has signed a memorandum of understanding with the ACE Terminal de Rotterdam consortium of companies by which the Spanish energy company has initiated a collaboration with the aim of reaching a binding agreement to facilitate the maritime transport of green ammonia between the port of Algeciras and the port of Rotterdam for its final use in industry. The ammonia can also be used directly by fertiliser…
Morgan Stanley analysts explain that excess liquidity in the European market multiplied in the post-Covid phase: from €1.7tn in December 2019 to a peak of €4.8tn in September 2022 and this increase helped stabilise the equity market during 2020. But “in the last three months we have seen this excess liquidity reduce by -12% (part of the ECB’s plan, by ending APP reinvestments and reducing TLTROs)
Intermoney | On the European continent, we will be looking forward to the activity data that will be offered by the preliminary PMI readings for February. For the first time in several months we will see readings above 50 in several economies and in the eurozone as a whole, especially in the indicators for services and the composite indicator, while in manufacturing activity the PMIs will again show a very…
Morgan Stanley : The banking sector’s earnings release was again very successful with PBT beating consensus by 10%, up 20% on last year. Revenues were +9% year on year (+13% eurozone banks), 3% better than consensus, thanks to the strength of NII which offset the fall in fees and commissions. Costs rose 3-4% and were slightly worse than expected. NII was up on average +13% year-on-year and 3% better than…