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In Europe

Borrell

European politics 18th February 2021

Kremlin And Brussels At Boiling Point

European Views | With EU-Russia relations at rock bottom following the arrest of dissident politician Alexei Navalny, a vicious crackdown on protesters, and the expulsion of several EU diplomats from Russia, imposing sanctions on the country should be a no-brainer for Brussels. Indeed, the Kremlin’s chronic flouting of international rules and norms, particularly as regards human rights, presents a fitting opportunity to put the EU’s newly minted Magnitsky-style sanctions regime to good use for the first time.

Germany

European politics 17th February 2021

The Upcoming Fiscal Debate In Germany

Intermoney | Days ago, Helge Braun, a close associate of Angela Merkel, proposed reforming Germany’s constitutional limit on public debt. This is an issue facing great resistance within key sectors of the CDU/CSU, making it difficult for it to go beyond the status of a mere proposal, but whose mere proposal represents a turning point. This debate will gain momentum after the September elections.

The paradox of the ECB long-term refinancing operations

European politics 16th February 2021

The Rimini Platform

Gilles Moec (AXA Group Chief Economist) | In Rimini in August 2020, Mario Draghi gave a speech which in retrospect could well define his action. Draghi called for a reform of the European economic framework. This will be crucial for Italy, and hence for the fate of the whole monetary union. A structural reform platform primed by public spending will need time to prove itself to the markets. The fiscal surveillance system needs to evolve. As President of the ECB, Draghi did wonders thanks to Angela Merkel’s silent support (her refusal to criticize him for his unorthodox monetary policy). As, potentially, head of government of the Euro area’s third largest economy, he will have to get explicit support for a new framework.

city of london

European economy 13th February 2021

Britain Out As Europe’s Largest Financial Trading Hub

European Views | Amsterdam took over London as Europe’s largest financial trading hub following post-Brexit changes to finance rules. According to a report by BBC, value turnover on Amsterdam exchanges now stands at 9.2 billion euros or higher by 7 percent than London’s 8.6-billion-euro daily turnover. Following new Brexit rules, European Union (EU)-based banks switched to buying European shares currently not traded on the London stock exchange, resulting in loss of fees for city firms.

European banks linda

European economy 11th February 2021

The Proportion Of Deposits With Negative Interest Rates In The Eurozone Exceeds 25%

A monetary policy with rates at 0% and the reduction of the deposit facility rate to levels of -0.50% have pushed the Euribor to its fifth consecutive year of negative rates. And it is also increasing the percentage of European deposits with figures below 0%. J.P. Morgan AM showed this evolution in its latest Market Guide (H1’21), which flags how the proportion of Eurozone deposits with negative rates has exceeded 25% in the case of non-financial companies, and is climbing to levels of 5% in the case of households.

brexitish

European politics 9th February 2021

Brexit: From Brothers To Distant Cousins

CaixaBank Research (Álvaro Leandro | What consequences the agreement for the UK exit from the EU will end up having remains to be seen and will depend on how trade and foreign investment between the UK and Europe evolve, as well as London’s prevalence as an international financial hub. In Europe, the impact will be mixed across the different economies, depending on their trade and financial links with the United Kingdom.

Araceli

European economy 5th February 2021

The EU Is 90% Away From Its Target Of 180 Mn Doses Of COVID-19 Vaccines Before End-Spring

Optimism about the vaccination process continues to grow and the Financial Times yesterday highlighted how the number of Covid-19 vaccines already administered globally, some 104 million doses, has for the first time exceeded the global number of reported cases, which stand at just over 103 million. The population vaccinated with at least one dose is around 10% in the United States and 14.4% in the United Kingdom, while just 3% of the European Union ‘s population has received a Covid-19 vaccination.

draghi ECB

European politics 3rd February 2021

Super Mario Is Back With The Mission To Turn Italian Crisis Around; But It Won’t Be Easy

Over the weekend, Mario Draghi has managed to obtain a broad majority to form a new coalition government in Italy after winning the support of the Five Star Movement and the ultra-right-wing League. His nomination is a try to turn the country around the virus-induced crisis, since he is a widely respected figure for his important role during the European debt crisis. The yield of the Italian 10-year bond fell last week -11 bps to 0.53% on the expectation of greater political stability in the country (vs. a high of 0.75% this year).

BCE SkylineFrankfurtTC

European economy 3rd February 2021

European Banks’ Dividends Could Reach Up To €11 Bn, Says The ECB

European banks will pay out between €10.5 and 11 Bn in dividends this year, according to “very preliminary” estimates by the European Central Bank, following consultations with the lenders. Spanish Santander, BBVA, CaixaBank and Bankinter have been authorised by the ECB to distribute 15% of their profits in dividends to their shareholders. Sabadell will not remunerate its shareholders so it would not have requested authorisation, while Bankia will do so after merging with CaixaBank, in April or May.

Eurogrupo Europa chuli

European politics 2nd February 2021

Support For Anti-EU Parties Falls During Pandemic

Nick Ottens (Atlantic Sentinel) | If the coronavirus pandemic is giving Europeans doubts about the EU, it isn’t showing up in support for Euroskeptic parties. Germany‘s ruling Christian Democrats are up from 33 to 35-37 percent in the polls. The far-right Alternative for Germany is at 9-10 percent, down from 13 percent in the last election. There is no chance it will end up in government. In Austria, the conservatives have swapped the far-right Freedom Party for the Greens in the ruling coalition. The Freedom Party is polling at 12-16 percent, far below their peak of 26 percent support in 2017. Mark Rutte is on track to win reelection in the Netherlands. The far-right Forum for Democracy, which narrowly bested Rutte’s liberal party in midterm elections in 2019, has imploded. In France…