Jefferies | A press leak earlier this morning seems to have unveiled renewed merger talks between BBVA (Buy) and Sabadell (Restricted). We provide some food for thought and outputs under different scenarios. We can see the merits for such a deal from the vantage of BBVA, but we remain expectant on whether both parties can agree on sensible terms. Our baseline scenario suggests 3.5% EPS accretion on just 20bps CET1…
CdM | Inflation accelerated by one tenth of a percentage point in April, to 3.3%, mainly due to higher gas and food prices, according to the advance CPI data published on Monday by the National Statistics Institute (INE). If confirmed on 14 May, core inflation, i.e. once the most volatile items in the shopping basket (unprocessed food and energy products) are removed, will have moderated by 0.4 percentage points to…
Jefferies | Caixabank | BUY | CABK SM | €5.12 | PT: €5.80 | % to PT: +13% | CaixaBank 1Q24 – In-line Prin and Guidance | 1Q24 in line at net income level. The 3% beat on NII is perhaps the major highlight (offset by small miss on others/LLCs), but very much confirming the dynamics already observed elsewhere hitherto. Upgraded FY24 NII guidance to MSD growth year-on-year (consensus already…
Jefferies | Banco Santander | BUY | SAN SM ! €4.75 ! PT: € 5.10 | % to PT: +7% A 1% miss versus cons at bottom-line level albeit some variations by geos. But decent print at PBT level (+1% beat). Revenue dynamics trending well, with Spain particularly strong. Brazil NII and asset quality trends also supportive, alongside good performance in fees in the US. Across the Group, OpEx and…
Jefferies | BBVA reported a solid 1Q24 print, with a 10% PAT beat versus consensus, driven by strong revenues, partly offset by costs. The quarter confirmed solid dynamics across most geographies, with beats coming from both Spain and Mexico. The FY24 outlook for revenues is improving on the back of better NII dynamics in Spain, and NAP for the group now guided to grow double-digit versus FY23 (consensus at 7%…
Unemployment rose by 117,000 people between January and March, which is 4.1% more than in the previous quarter, while employment fell by 139,700 jobs (0.6%), registering in both cases its worst data in a first quarter since 2020, with the arrival of Covid, the INE (National Employment Institute) reported on Friday. After rising by 117,000 people in the first three months of the year, the unemployment rate stood at 12.29%…
Bankinter : Cellnex (CLNX) 1Q2024 results slightly beat expectations. Revenues are up 7% to €946M (versus €947M estimated); Adjusted EBITDA is up 7% to €778M (versus €777M estimated) and Recurrent cash flow is up14% to €384M (versus €375M estimated). Maintains guidance for 2024: Revenues of €3,850-3,950m, EBITDA of €3,150-3250m and cash flow of €1,650-1750m. Assessment by Bankinter’s research team: Slightly better-than-estimated results in cash flow, although guidance remains unchanged for…
The tax burden in Spain has increased across the board, both on companies and on citizens, in contrast to a very small increase in the tax burden in most advanced economies. Specifically, the tax burden on average wages (including social security contributions and personal income tax) will rise to 40.2% of gross labour costs in 2023, six tenths more than the previous year, according to figures published yesterday by the…
Bankinter: The main figures compared to the company’s own consensus for 1Q24 are: Revenues €1,481M (down 16.9% year-on-year; down 3.1% year-on-year) against €1,516M estimated; EBITDA €111M (down 50.9% year-on-year; up 15.6% quarter-on-quarter) fully in line with €111M estimate, giving an EBITDA margin of 7.5% for the group (7.2% in Stainless Steel and up 8.2% in High Performance Alloys). EBITDA of €53M (against €136M in 3Q 2022) against +€45M estimated. Net…
Yesterday morning, a judge opened an investigation into the shady business dealings of Begoña Gómez, the wife of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, which we have already reported on in The Corner: “Something fishy in La Moncloa: Pedro Sánchez’s wife recommended two companies in a public tender for a €7-million contract” And in the afternoon, in a letter posted on his social networks, the president of the government announced that he…