By Sara B. Potter, CFA | Signs are multiplying of an industrial activity slowdown. Now that the current U.S. economic expansion is on record as the longest in post-war history (10 years and counting), we are seeing an uptick in the predictions of an inevitable recession.
A soft landing is the Holy Grail of central bankers. The glory that accrues from avoiding the economic costs of a recession by skilful manipulation of interest rates. But do such efforts to avoid, or mitigate, recessions simply store up trouble for the future? Does seeking to avoid a recession simply lead to a worse recession in the future?
JP Marin-Arrese │Any seasoned central banker knows by heart that words rather than measures better serve monetary policy. The material effect any move delivers doesn’t match the impact on expectations and market sentiment an authoritative message conveys.
Iñigo Isardo, Link Analysis│An exchange rate conflict threatens to complicate US-China trade conflict. As we anticipated yesterday, the escalation of tensions in the trade conflict between the US and China impacted negatively on western markets. China has responded with the largest devaluation of its currency the yuan in more than a decade.
Íñigo Isardo (Link Securities) | This week will be affected by the uncertainties of the trade conflict between the US and China after the latest “turn of the screw” introduced by US President Donald Trump into the trade negotiations. Last Thursday Trump announced on Twitter the imposition of 10% tariffs from 1 September on 300 Bn$ of imports from China which so far have not had to pay tariffs.
Christian Scherrmann (DWS) | As was expected , the Federal Reserve cut interest rates 25 base points to a range of 2.0-2.25% at the July meeting of its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Olivia Álvarez (Monex Europe) | Driven by concerns about a no-deal Brexit, in less than a week, the pound sterling has fallen more than 2.7% against the euro, reaching its lowest levels in the last two years.
Manuel Moreno Capa (Director of GESTORES) | China already has its Nasdaq, its stock market for technology companies – the STAR index. Well, with certain differences: only 25 companies are listed on it, compared to the 3,000 listed on the Nasdaq. But it does not matter. The wind from the East blows hard and will drive technology funds, high risk products, but also with elevated potential returns in the medium and long term.
Shaun Riordan │Many of us are already enjoying our summer holidays. Others are packing now, looking forward to relaxing on the beach, or in the mountains. Wherever we are taking our holidays we should make the most of them. A perfect storm is brewing which could hit Europe hard in the autumn, with devasting economic and political consequences.
via The Conversation | The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has become increasingly infatuated by the negative consequences of excessive inequality. This new-found mission is laudable, but neglects the manifold ways its own policy advice contributed to growing income inequality.