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Brazil

World economy 3rd December 2016

Amid Uncertainty, Latin America Is Looking Up

Pablo Bejar | For the first time since 1982-83, the Latin America and Caribbean region is expected to be in recession for two consecutive years (2015-16). According to World Economic Outlook forecasts, growth is expected to be -0.6% this year following growth of -0.03% last year. The fall in commodity prices, lower global trade and continued weakness in advanced economies, combined with a set of internal factors in some of the larger regional economies, have driven growth lower.

Dollar's fall could damage ECB policy

World economy 30th November 2016

US: a powerful positive consensus and a stoppable dollar

Julius Baer Research | The combination of a positive economic growth narrative, like the fiscal boost under President-elect Trump, and good economic data, creates a powerful positive US consensus. Self-limiting forces of a stronger US dollar and higher interest rates are slowly emerging.

oil barrelsTC

World economy 29th November 2016

OPEC Returns – For Now

UBS | It looks increasingly likely that at its meeting on 30 Nov next week OPEC will agree the production cut envisaged at its Sept extraordinary meeting. In Sept an OPEC-14 produc tion target range between 32.5 -33.0Mbd was agreed, designed to accelerate inventory draw -down and bring fwd re-balancing.

Spain defence spending

World economy 28th November 2016

More Deficit?: Spain Obliged To Double Defence Budget

Someone like Donald Trump emerging on the world stage threatens to make too many changes in the status quo, some of which will have a particular impact on Europe’s economies and especially Spain. One area which appears likely to progress at a cruising speed in the short and medium-term is Defence spending. This is a particularly sensitive issue and one which Obama already tried to have modified during his mandate.

Emerging markets

World economy 27th November 2016

Improving Emerging Markets Fundamentals

UBP | Several major emerging markets economies are gaining speed. Indian and Indonesian GDP have posted successive gains and are likely to hold the current level of momentum given high government infrastructure spending. Russia is coming out of a recession; with the boost from interest rate cuts. In Brazil, leading indicators are turning less negativ.

Global consumers can be relied on

World economy 23rd November 2016

Global Consumption: The Private Consumer Can Be Relied On

Julius Baer Research | Consumer demand actually looks quite good in all markets, where the overall economic backdrop has improved, with less unemployment and rising real wages. The private consumption component of gross domestic product (GDP) varies between 60% and more than 70%, as is the case for the US, in advanced economies.

Black Friday in the US

World economy 23rd November 2016

Black Friday 2016: A Year Of Record Sales

This coming Friday November 25th is celebrated throughout the world as Black Friday. The name originated in the United States in the 1960s and refers to the shopping day after Thanksgiving. The first estimates on pre-Christmas sales (Black Friday and Cyber Monday) point to a record season this year.

Mexico's oil prices

World economy 22nd November 2016

Mexico got Trumped!

AXA IM | Mexico, together with China, appears to be the country most exposed to Trump’s economic policy given its vicinity and close trade relations with the US. The Mexican peso has depreciated by 10% relative to its pre-election day closing level, the stock market is down 6% and the local currency sovereign 10-year rate has shot up by 112bps.

Donald Trump and Taxes

World economy 20th November 2016

Donald Trump and the End of Liberal History

Joachim Koops | November 9, 2016, could become an American, transatlantic and global “Day of Fate” of another kind. The election of Donald Trump as the 45th president of the United States of America is feared by some as leading to a US exit from liberal order.