The key point about the Fed’s exit strategy is not so much the pace of rate hikes which will be very gradual or just gradual, but also how it will reconfigure its balance.
Julius Baer Research | Oil’s push above USD 58 per barrel on the first trading day of the year seemingly only was a temporary burst of energy. The market’s focus is on quota compliance as the oil producers must now walk the talk of supply cuts. We remain sceptical that the supply deal will have a material impact, swiftly erase surplus supplies and provide lasting support to prices.
In general terms, leaving aside certain nuances, the short-term outlook in the US will be such that it will allow the Fed to raise interest rates, which will be taken as a positive symptom. But on the downside, this will mean higher funding costs. So issuers have already begun to anticípate these rate hikes which will make it difficult for them to match the debt issuance volumes of 2016.
I hate this endless temptation for bracketing time into what we call “years.” Time is time and, by definition, there are no interruptions. The problems which beset us in 2016 are still here, whether it’s terrorism or open warfare or Spain’s ingovernability. Thinking it’s going to be very different in 2017 is deceiving ourselves.
AXA IM | The past year has witnessed something of a turn-around in investors’ perceptions of the economic and financial outlook, chiefly on the back of hopes that the cloud of secular stagnation may be starting to dissipate. In our 2017 outlook, we take a step back from current market jitters and examine the fundamentals behind the present backdrop of ultra-low interest rates and poor economic growth. Simply we challenge the dominant idea that this is the fate of our future as investors.
As far as the global economy is concerned, 2017 will be the year when new US President Donald Trump will make his mark. That said, how far his influence will reach is still uncertain as it is still too soon to know how many of his policies will be implemented.
Those old jobs in productive manufacturing companies which exported from the developed countries to half the world are never coming back. You can’t suddenly use protectionism to reverse such a huge change which has taken place throughout the world.
There is a statistic link between profits and investment, in the US, so a drop in the former determines a recession in the following quarter. But the Trump effect is likely to mean another imminent recession will have to wait.
The date for the Confederation of African States and monetary union is set for May 2063, when the African Union commemorates the centenary of its foundation as Organisation of African Unity (OAU). Gold Mandela has been chosen as a possible name for the African single currency.
BoAML | We look for another year of muddling through, with a slight pick-up in global economics growth and a normal risk of recession.Aggregate demand is starting to outstrip feeble aggregate supply: look for a modest pick-up in global core inflation. The main risk to global growth comes from US: a big fiscal push could cause the economy to overheat.