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alemania industria2

World economy 27th June 2023

Cycle continues to deteriorate: weaker than expected IFO survey in Germany, weak recovery in China, slowdown in US

Renta 4: European markets open flat (Eurostoxx futures +0.3%, S&P futures +0.2%). In the background, promises of new stimulus measures in China by Prime Minister Li Qiang that could accelerate its economy in 2Q23 after the weakness shown by the latest data, although without any specifics. On the macroeconomic front, we highlight yesterday’s worse-than-expected deterioration in Germany’s IFO survey, weighed down by a weaker-than-expected opening of the Chinese economy, the…

Fed marzo 2022 2

In the World 22nd June 2023

Fed focuses message on inflation control and banking sector stability, but without concrete proposals

Bankinter| In his appearance before Congress, Powell maintained the tone and vagueness of his message. Congress has focused most of its questions on banking regulation. Meanwhile, Powell focused his message on inflation control, but without specifying the future. Analysis team’s view: The Fed governor reinforced the stability of the banking sector. But, he did not specify the future of regulation. Powell expects to receive a proposal during the summer. However,…

bond vigilantes

World economy 22nd June 2023

Bausparkasse: First postponement of a bond issue this year. Curves expected for credit market

“It was a 10-year covered bond from a small German building society, Bausparkasse. Probably too local to be representative, but it is certainly not positive news,” explain Santander analysts, who foresee a sharp reduction in bond issues in the second half of the year, after a record first half. As of last Friday, 16 June, €534 billion had been issued. Santander’s full year projections point to total issuance of €895bn…

ACS Fachada

In the World 20th June 2023

ACS strengthens North American presence with €500-million extension of Ontario commuter line in Canada

Intermoney| ACS, through Dragados, in alliance with the Ledcor group, has won the initial works to extend services on the Ontario commuter line (Go Line). The contractors will work on the nearly 20-kilometre Lakeshore East line in the town of Bowmanville. The work includes seven new bridges and grade crossing improvements. Ontario has committed C$730 (about €500 million) to this rail extension. The investment in the Go Line amounts to…

mercados emergentes

World economy 19th June 2023

Moody’s HY default rate continues to rise (+0.2pp to 3.4% in May) and agency expects it to peak at 5% in 2Q24

Santander Corporate & Investment| Moody’s published on Thursday its monthly report where it announced that there were 16 defaults in May, matching the March figure which represented a monthly record since December 2020. This brings the balance for the first five months of the year to 62 defaults, with North America leading the way (42, more than double the 16 in the same period of 2022), followed by Europe (11),…

china central bank

World economy 16th June 2023

PBoC sticks to script and lowers one-year rate to 2.65% from 2.75% previously

Bankinter : The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) lowers the 1-year funding rate to 2.65% from 2.75% previously (in line with estimates); (ii) Industrial Production +3.5% in May (year-on-year) vs. +3.5% estimated and +5.6% previously; (iii) Retail Sales +12.7% in May (year-on-year) vs. +13.7% estimated and +18.4% previously. Bankinter’s analysis: The PBOC sticks to the script and lowers one-year rates after doing the same on Tuesday with the REPO rate….

petroleo grua2CM

World economy 16th June 2023

IEA forecasts global oil demand to peak before end of decade

BancaMarch: The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global demand for crude oil to peak before the end of the decade. According to the agency, consumption of crude oil as a transport fuel will begin to decline from 2026, due to the rise of the electric car and other measures put in place. Nevertheless, the IEA forecasts a 6% growth in global oil demand between 2022 and 2028, reaching 105.7 million…

Federal Reserve

World economy 15th June 2023

Fed takes a breather and pauses rate increases after 10 consecutive hikes

CoM | The US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided on Wednesday to pause interest rate hikes and keep them in a range of between 5 and 5.25%, after a historic round of ten consecutive rate hikes since March 2022. “Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to grow at a moderate pace. Employment growth has been solid in recent months and the unemployment rate has remained low,” the agency said…

mercosur

In the World 15th June 2023

European Union in favour of closing Mercosur agreement by end of year

BancaMarch: The European Union is in favour of concluding the agreement with Mercosur before the end of the year. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, defended on Monday before the President of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the need to close the trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur before the end of the year. Doing so would thus conclude a pact that has…

bank of japan

World economy 14th June 2023

Notwithstanding improvement in margins and wages for large companies, BoJ to wait until it completes its monetary review

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has begun to highlight the rising inflation bias. At the Lower House, Governor Ueda testified on June 9th that corporate price-setting behavior has been shifting upward. Furthermore, as the spring wage negotiation resulted in the largest wage increase in 30 years, inflation could surprise on the upside.Price transfer of higher input costs has become broad based. For sure, small companies,…