J.L. M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | It’s still early days yet to affirm that the uptick in medium and long-term interest rates really reflects a change in trend. But it’s true that the central banks in the main developed countries are sending ever more clear signals about the limits of continuing to increase expansionary monetary policy.
BoAML | We believe that nominal US rates are biased lower heading into a period of policy uncertainty including the US Presidential contest, European elections, and continued negotiations over Article 50. We continue to think that there may be a re-pricing of uncertainty premium over the next month.
Ahmed Ezzeldin | Since oil prices plummeted from around $100 a barrel in mid-2014 to $50 in September 2016, the fiscal crisis of Saudi Arabia has deepened further. These signals point in one direction: The golden days of the generous Saudi state might be coming to an end.
The financial world can also become the best scenario for a real thriller. While movies use cemeteries and psychiatric hospitals to cause panic, finances can make markets shake with low interest rates, the volume of global debt and the size of the Eurozone’s banking industry.
Peter Isackson | The fact-checking is finished, and the polls to determine who won and who lost will soon be wiped from our collective memory. While it lasted, it wasn’t exactly waterboarding but for many it was an unambiguous case of torture. The three debates are over, praise the Lord. America is now entering the brief phase in which it can look back at the weirdest US presidential campaign in history.
Mark Tinker at AXA IM | While investors wait for clarity on US politics, a revisit to our balance sheet approach to economics shows that data on US household wealth and income growth undermines the widespread ‘Great Recession’ meme. US household wealth is up 37% since 2010 and disposable income growth is up 4%.
AXA IM | While the magic of Mario Draghi was being fully played out, the economic and financial outlook looks on an improving path to recovery in a post-crisis world. Clouds in this blue –but not entirely clear– sky may emerge from the political sphere.
Nick Malkoutzis via Macropolis | It was perhaps the most fitting finale that the people of Lesvos did not receive the Nobel Peace Prize earlier this month. Not because they did not deserve it for showing such dignity and solidarity in these selfish and unsettling times, but because the help, warmth and care that they did provide was done so selflessly.
AXA IM | Markets have reacted to his trade policy proposals, but implications are more far-reaching. A key macroeconomic difference between Clinton and Trump victories is the short-term cyclical outlook, with a more forceful fiscal stimulus under a Trump presidency. This would imply Clinton win (baseline) stronger GDP growth, steeper Fed tightening, a stronger dollar and higher US treasury yields.
Since 2008, pessimism has beaten optimism by a landslide in the human mind. It’s a fact which doesn’t need to be demonstrated, at least when we are talking about “how things are going with the economy.” But the Bond Vigilantes dare to challenge this unstoppable current of pessimism – and not only with regard to the economy – with an article based on the Internet’s contribution to global well-being.