Peter Isackson | The fact-checking is finished, and the polls to determine who won and who lost will soon be wiped from our collective memory. While it lasted, it wasn’t exactly waterboarding but for many it was an unambiguous case of torture. The three debates are over, praise the Lord. America is now entering the brief phase in which it can look back at the weirdest US presidential campaign in history.
Mark Tinker at AXA IM | While investors wait for clarity on US politics, a revisit to our balance sheet approach to economics shows that data on US household wealth and income growth undermines the widespread ‘Great Recession’ meme. US household wealth is up 37% since 2010 and disposable income growth is up 4%.
AXA IM | While the magic of Mario Draghi was being fully played out, the economic and financial outlook looks on an improving path to recovery in a post-crisis world. Clouds in this blue –but not entirely clear– sky may emerge from the political sphere.
Nick Malkoutzis via Macropolis | It was perhaps the most fitting finale that the people of Lesvos did not receive the Nobel Peace Prize earlier this month. Not because they did not deserve it for showing such dignity and solidarity in these selfish and unsettling times, but because the help, warmth and care that they did provide was done so selflessly.
AXA IM | Markets have reacted to his trade policy proposals, but implications are more far-reaching. A key macroeconomic difference between Clinton and Trump victories is the short-term cyclical outlook, with a more forceful fiscal stimulus under a Trump presidency. This would imply Clinton win (baseline) stronger GDP growth, steeper Fed tightening, a stronger dollar and higher US treasury yields.
Since 2008, pessimism has beaten optimism by a landslide in the human mind. It’s a fact which doesn’t need to be demonstrated, at least when we are talking about “how things are going with the economy.” But the Bond Vigilantes dare to challenge this unstoppable current of pessimism – and not only with regard to the economy – with an article based on the Internet’s contribution to global well-being.
Are extremely low interest rates good or bad for the economy? Is is it true that they are seriously damaging the profitability of the banks and insurers? The debate over the suitability of the zero interest policy driven by the central banks is heating up between the monetary authorities and the financial sector.
The IMF estimates world debt at over $150 billion as can be seen in the graphic below. This represents approximately 250% of global GDP. And it’s easy to see that the bulk of it is private debt. It’s also clear that debt jumped massively when the crisis broke out in 2008 and has continued to grow since then. In 2008, debt was less than 150% of GDP.
UBS | Since 2010 US productivity growth has been just over 1%, a deceleration not only from the long-term average but also weaker than the rate of productivity growth seen in the 70s and 80s. That said, a 10-year average does not look too low relative to history.
Ahmed Ezzeldin | We usually expect elected politicians to represent the choices of the people and remedy the historical sins of brutal dictatorships that dominated the world for most of its history. Is that the case?