Samantha North | The time is ripe for governments to start monitoring their digital reputation just as they monitor it in the real world. The Digital Country Index has been recently released for the first time. This new tool categorizes online search terms to form a picture of the world’s true levels of interest in countries.
UBS | Our base case forecasts for China’s growth are already below consensus at 6.2% for 2016 and 5.8% for 2017. In this note we study the impact on global economies and assets of a much darker and, in our view, extremely unlikely scenario where China real GDP growth slips to 4%, and nominal growth below 1.5%.
Benjamin Cole via Historinhas | The tight-money crowd is dominant in central-bank staffs, and so firmly (and self-perpetuatingly?) ensconced in such independent government sinecures that they look likely to outlast all rivals. That tight-money enthusiasts preach an increasingly dubious religion or ideology—I have dubbed it Theomonetarism—is unimportant. They have allies in media and academia, curiously always on the right-wing side of things (with some exceptions, such as Ramesh Ponnuru at National Review, James Pethokoukis at AEI, and Scott Sumner, of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University).
Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat | Since their announcement in late 2013 during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Indonesia and Kazakhstan, the New Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road—also known as “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) initiative—have been under intense scrutiny among academia and policymaking circles in China and around the world.
BARCLAYS | We expect the turn of the calendar to bring a brighter tone to the TIPS market as many of the headwinds from 2015 begin to fade. The carry outlook should be positive after February, y/y headline CPI should move up sharply and concerns over a monetary policy error have receded with
the Fed’s dovish hike.
Allan Bollard via Caixin | Concerns about the impact of global trade and growth on environmental protection and sustainability, and vice versa, are longstanding and not without cause. Yet, the advancement of these 21st century priorities is not an either/or proposition. To the contrary, they can and must go hand in hand.
Janet Yellen’s delivery of a moderate rise in the Fed’s funds was bang in line with the market’s bets. She also conveyed a message of dovish commitment to thinking twice before engaging in any further monetary tightening. But despite her efforts to convince the markets that monetary policy will be back to business as usual, the cumbersome heritage of the liquidity glut will severely limit Yellen’s room for manoeuvre.
Most analysts think that the European stock markets, and particularly the Spanish bourse, have taken an excessive beating over the last few sessions. Now fund managers are recommending to take advantage of the recent correction to buy into these markets. In their opinion, the recovery in activity in the euro area will be accompanied by an improvement in share prices in the coming months.
UBS | This time around consensus is unanimous and the question is more about the FOMC’s wording and guidance than the actual rate hike, although we assume the Fed is going to hike 25bp tonight. What does this tightening mean for the European banks and insurers?
Chitra Subramaniam | The very talented Swiss artist Patrick Chapatte’s 2006 cartoon to mark the start of the international climate talks in Nairobi in November 2006 could well have been repeated for the recently concluded climate talks in Paris. Nobody is quite sure what was achieved, but everyone is relieved that talks didn’t crash.