BERLIN | By Alberto Lozano | The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is being negotiated between the European Commission and the United States in Brussels. Once again, Germany, as Europe’s economic and political powerhouse, could have the last word on its contents and approval.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | As soon as you mention “market monetarist”, NGDP comes to mind. While for most the all-encompassing variable is inflation, to MMs the “target” variable is NGDP being kept at a steadily rising trend level.
ZURICH | By UBS analysts | We have a neutral stance on global banks as we look to 2015. Given a modest recovery in global growth in 2015E, credit demand is expected to remain sluggish while the margin outlook is likely to be mixed, reflecting diverging policy rate trends. We expect to see good cost control as banks strive for greater efficiency while overall asset quality should remain stable albeit picking up in emerging markets. While earnings momentum has been negative this year, we think current valuations are fair, with the sector trading on 10.1x PE and 1.0x PBV versus a sector ROE of 12.4%, on our 2015 estimates.
By Alberto Forchielli via Caixin | The prospects for growth in the West may be dim, but that doesn’t mean Asia’s developing countries must settle for privation.
MADRID | The Corner | The ruble plummeted on Monday, suffering its worst daily fall since Russia’s 1998 crisis, plunging more than 6% against the dollar before recovering to losses of around 4% Lowering oil prices are killing the currency, and yet Moscow does not intend to cut production in 2015, leaving output at the current 525-526 million metric tons. Russian analysts commenting for The Corner explained there is enough currency liquidity in the market to handle the shock. At least for now.
MADRID | By Sean Duffy | The OECD´s economic outlook showed that voices calling for action in Europe are growing louder. With the outcomes of austerity and budgetary consolidation continuing to drag down the economy, Catherine L Mann´s arrival as its chief economist represents a significant coup for advocates of the opposite recipe.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | Why? According to the “accountants”: “It’s no secret that spending cuts (and tax hikes) have retarded America’s growth for the past four years. But data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis suggests that the era of austerity may finally have ended.” See the “flagship chart” above.
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | Austerians are fighting back, but retreating. At least in what concerns the best Keynes, the financial Keynes, I guess. Three years ago the OECD was calling for a general rates hike. Now, under another leadership, the Paris-based institution is asking for fiscal and monetary stimulus, mostly in Europe.
MADRID | The Corner | Oil prices continue to fall ahead of the much-awaited OPEC meeting today, which will start at 9:00GMT –a press conference will be held at 15:00GMT. Brent crude and WTI both fell to four-year lows on concerns that oil producers will not make the large supply cuts needed to contain the slide. Analysts at Barclays believe that with an absence of basing signals for WTI crude, the risk remains lower towards 70.76. Will the oil cartel react?