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World economy 7th August 2014

Top One Percent Has One Third of China’s Wealth, Research Shows

BEIJING | By Zhou Dongxu (Caixin) | China’s income inequality is relatively high, and its wealth inequality, as measured by the Gini index, is greater than its income inequality. The U.S.’ income inequality index is lower than China’s, but its wealth inequality is higher – Its Gini coefficient for household wealth was 0.8, compared with China’s 0.73. This is because the United States has a relatively mature market economy, where wealth has been accumulated slowly through income and investment. Many in China, however, own homes allocated to them by the government. As those homes’ value increased, so did their wealth.

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World economy 7th August 2014

JPMorgan: Global economy might pivot to above trend growth in 3Q

MADRID | The Corner | JPMorgan’s economic outlook forecasts that global growth is taking hold around midyear and as a rebound from weakness the US and Japan is reinforcing a more modest acceleration in the Euro area and emerging Asia. If JPMorgan analysts are right, this episode’s contours should mirror growth pivots in earlier expansions (during 2003 and 1993).

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World economy 5th August 2014

US & UK: Siamese twins? Up to a point

SAO PAULO  | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | NGDP and RGDP trends are rather similar in both countries. The main question is: Why is the UK´s labor market so much more exuberant?

ACTO FESTEJO ASUNCION CRISTINA KIRCHNER PRESIDENCIA

World economy 4th August 2014

Don’t let the facts get in the way of “Argentinology”

ATHENS | Via Macropolis | It should come as no surprise that in a the country where a large part of the political establishment is comfortable with the notion that some sort of conspiracy drove the country to bankruptcy, the same key players should spend the last few days in a hopeless debate on the recent developments in Argentina.

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World economy 3rd August 2014

Can China keep running?

MADRID | The Corner | A bull market. But how sustainable? Asia ex Japan has just breached its 2011 high. Key to this is China. Over the last month MSCI China is up 7% on strong volume. It is now up 5% for the year. Easier monetary conditions, better growth data and improved earnings, meeting low valuations and poor sentiment, have driven the China rally and recent outperformance.

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World economy 31st July 2014

China: optimism on the rise again

MADRID | The Corner | Once again markets have embraced optimism about China, leaving fears of a hard landing and a credit crisis that dominated in 1Q behind. As Barclays analysts pointed out on Thursday, the onshore equity market has risen 6% in the past two weeks, with the low-valuation bank and property sectors advancing more than 10%. 

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World economy 31st July 2014

Argentina: Griesa’s ruling sets dangerous precedent in debt restructuring processes

MADRID | The Corner | Many got it all wrong: the problem with Argentina is not the so-called “second default in 12 years,” but U.S. District Judge Thomas Griesa’s ruling. The country will need to pay holdouts $1.33 billion plus interest. And that sets an extremely dangerous precedent for future restructuring processes of sovereign debt. No bond-holder will accept a haircut knowing that, at the end of the day, he could ask for the full amount. (Fig left: Argentina’s national reserves; right: sovereign CDS).

 

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World economy 30th July 2014

Find the inequality debate boring? Then check the numbers again

MADRID | The Corner | One of 2014 most commented/loved/bashed books has been Thomas Piketty’s “Capital in the Twenty-First Century”, which put such an old concept as inequality back on the table. The truth is, as inequality is reducing on a global scale, it is increasing within many economies, including emerging countries like China and India. Increasing access to education and electricity in poor countries and areas pays out, as the World Bank is underlining in a campaign (check the video above).

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World economy 30th July 2014

China optimism lifts Asia equities

LONDON | By EM Asia Rates Strategy analyst Rohit Arora | Asian equities continued to march higher, with stocks in Korea and Japan outperforming on the day. The Nikkei’s outperformance, despite weaker-than-expected readings on retail sales and jobless data, was counterintuitive and likely reflects increasing market expectations of BoJ easing. In FX, the NZD was a notable underperformer after Fonterra lowered its 2014-15 milk price forecast to NZD6/kg from NZD7/kg.