By Luis Arroyo, in Madrid | With a little help from the Federal Reserve and the current government, the number of unsold housing in the US is beginning to reach some normalcy. Oversupply, one of the biggest barriers to restore a healthy functioning sector, has stopped. House volume per family now sits at 1992 levels. In Spain, unfortunately, we haven’t even started. The only sure thing about these matters in…
By CaixaBank research team, in Barcelona | The slowdown in the recovery of the labour market is the factor that best explains this slump in consumption. In May, 69,000 net jobs were created, a very modest figure that follows on from the bad figures for April. Similarly, the hours worked and weekly wages also fell. The recovery is too slow and the level of employment prior to the crisis is…
Ben Bernanke is not taking the wallet out of his pocket, at least not yet. The Fed will first assess July and August US unemployment reports and also “financial developments”, as it said in a statement at the conclusion of a two-day meeting in Washington. Meaning what? Meaning financial stability in Europe, which is one of US main concerns. We’ll have to wait until September, but there are some hints…
The euro zone’s doggedness showed up again in the latest quarterly European sector accounts released by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, and the European Central Bank. From January to March of 2012, compared with the last three months of 2011, the business investment rate remained nearly stable in the euro area and fell slightly in the wider European Union. Also, the business profit share even rose slightly in the euro area, as wage costs remained…
MADRID | Three years have passed since the US took hold in mid-2009 of something of an economic recovery. The green in the green shoots has been paler than first thought, though. JP Morgan analysts in Spain released today a note saying that, by GDP per capita standards, we are witnesses of the weakest rebound the US has lived since World War Second. In the JP Morgan chart, populations has…
“I don’t think ultimately that the Europeans will let the Euro unravel, but they are going to have to take some decisive steps,” US President Barack Obama said in a fundraiser event Monday night held in a New York high end hotel. Only four months before the U.S. election, Euro worries are inevitably playing a major role on this side of the Atlantic. Any worsening in the Euro zone situation…
Economist Ricardo R. Reis expects “better policymaking from the European authorities now.” Originally from Portugal, Reis teaches at Columbia University, he is a former graduate from the London School of Economics and Harvard Ph.D and has worked extensively on inflation dynamics and monetary and fiscal policy, including evaluation of fiscal stimulus programs. He gives his take on the current economic turmoil for our readers in the first of a summer…
BEIJING | China is thirsty of energy. It’s the world’s biggest consumer of energy and the second consumer of oil. The world’s biggest country needs energy more than anything in order to keep the engine of growth working at high speed. Furthermore, development and urbanisation plans might put their dependency on foreign resources to the brink due to an increasing need of energy to power its vast urban areas. So,…
By CaixaBank research team, in Barcelona | The US economy is leaving behind its vigorous start to the year and is on way to a weaker scenario than the consensus had expected at the end of April, after the publication of the gross domestic product (GDP) flash estimate for the first quarter. The main reason for this weaker tone lies in the loss of dynamism in the labour market’s recovery….
An unwritten rule seems to warrant that US defence spending is kept immune to the ups and downs of the nation's GDP. The extraordinary dimensions of the current economic downturn, nevertheless, is testing its past resilience to any sort of moderation. Public investment in military affairs has largely been the result of foreign policy and global strategy, government cabinets since 2001 would surely protest from Washington. But a federal deficit…