There has long been much polemic surrounding the CFA franc. Is it a symbol of France’s “exploitation and pillaging” in Africa, which has been denounced by demonstrators and many experts who analyse issues affecting this continent. Or, on the contrary, is the CFA franc a guarantee of economic stability and development, as its European and African defenders claim?
The recent uptick in long-term debt rates, with the German bund leading the way, is not only due to investors’ disappointment after the last ECB meeting. Experts highlight other factors such as the global economy’s slightly better-than-forecast performance and the expectations for a generalised round of fiscal stimuli in key economic areas. Public debt for financing this expansion would increase and this exerts upward pressure on the rate curve.
BoAML | Central banks have learned the power of global spillovers the hard way in recent years. This is particularly true for the Federal Reserve, which paused planned policy tightening after the taper tantrum in 2013 and again after the sharp US dollar appreciation in 2014 and early 2015. In both cases US financial conditions deteriorated appreciably and the Fed responded by signalling a more gradual normalization.
Hu Shuli via Caixin | China has overhauled its fiscal budgeting process several times since the late 1970s by adjusting how local and central governments share public service cost responsibilities. Now, top policymakers have released new guidelines that reflect a determination to push forward long-overdue government spending reforms.
UBS | Post 2008, there is evidence that real growth has slowed down on a trend basis. Long-term expectation s of inflation have also fallen globally. In the long run and beyond cyclical swings, earnings growth is also likely to decline on average from pre-crisis norms of 10-11% to ca. 6 -7% in Europe and the US (in our estimates).
The recent G 20 Summit saw widespread concern over the backlash against free trade. The crude populism gaining momentum in many developed countries has raised the banner against globalisation, depicted as the main culprit for all woes. Those losing their jobs or facing tougher labour conditions openly blame imports and open market access for their misfortune.
James Alexander via Historinhas | It’s taken a while but the evidence is now in. Euro Area NGDP growth has overtaken US NGDP growth. Congratulations to the ECB, commiserations to the Fed. Go Europe!
BoAML | As the impeachment is no longer an obstacle for President Michel Temer’s government to go ahead with its economic agenda, we believe focus will likely shift back to the timing of the presentation of reforms and the start of the monetary policy easing cycle.
No-one really knows why Mario Draghi said last week that for the time being there are no reasons to increase the ECB’s anti-deflation weaponry beyond March 2017. He said the matter had not even been discussed during the central bank’s Council Meeting on Thursday. The euro has risen and the yield on the German bund as well.
Caixin | Late summer and early autumn is traditionally a hot season for property sales in China. In 30 major cities, August property sales by floor space increased 27 %year-on-year to 22.9 million square meters, according to E-House China R&D Institute.