BBVA Research | After providing a grand finale to the Rio 2016 Olympic Games, the first ever to be held in Latin America, Brazil is now back to reality: a political crisis which is the prelude to the definitive removal from office of President Dilma Rousseff and an economic crisis which has pushed the country into recession.
Why does the Fed continue to be a glutton for punishment, repeatedly announcing for over a year that it is going to raise interest rates, then having to put the decision on hold? Yet again it has announced it will have to hike rates before end-year, possibly twice, and perhaps, once more, it will have to back down.
At Jackson Hole, Janet Yellen dwelt extensively on the challenges raised by low neutral rates, recognizing the need to broaden the unconventional toolkit for compensating for the subdued impact rate cuts might have in future. By hinting the Fed should reinforce its weaponry, just in case there is an unexpected and most unlikely bout of recession, Janet Yellen is sending the wrong message.
The reality being faced in the US and abroad is that the current world order has failed to deliver its promises.
Stock market analysts have turned the annual central bankers’ meeting in Jackson Hole into a boiling pot of speculation regarding what message Fed Chair Janet Yellen will transmit. The markets are not expecting a rate hike in September, but are hoping for some guidance from Yellen’s speech today about how she sees the US economy, the key factor which will determine whether there will be a rate move before year-end.
Fan Ruohong and Chen Na via Caixin | Renewable energy accounted for nearly a quarter of China’s power generation last year, even as wind and solar farms with 39 billion kilowatt-hours of capacity sat idle due to poor planning in the rush to meet Beijing’s ambitious green energy targets, the National Energy Administration (NEA) said.
In the good old days, financial and economic observers used to worship Alan Greenspan’s deliveries as if they were Moses’ Tables of the Law. Many even earned their living interpreting his messages. This has no longer been the case since the first moment Janet Yellen took office. Most acknowledge that reading the Fed minutes is tantamount to a sheer waste of time. What we want to know, and the sooner the better, is the degree of commitment the Fed will demonstrate in hiking rates and reducing the liquidity glut.
Shi Rui, Wang Luyi, Li Rongde via Caixin | The number of provinces with pension spending deficits doubled over the last year, according to a new report, underscoring the urgency for creating a national system that would let wealthier coastal regions subsidize poorer interior ones. Pension funds in six provinces paid out more money than they collected in 2015, up from three regions a year earlier, according to the 2015 China Social Security Development Report compiled by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security.
John Bruton | The best way to avoid stagnation induced by uncertainty would be for governments in developed countries to produce comprehensive, demographically-based scenarios for the economy over the next 30 years.
Governments do not want to acknowledge that a Central Bank does not have the ability to bolster the economy. Monetarism has not worked. The massive purchase of corporate bonds by the Central Banks has not worked. They have been left alone to face the problem and they have failed. The solution is to activate demand and Central Banks cannot do this.