Central bankers deserve praise for salvaging the economy when it was navegating rough waters. The massive liquidity glut they provided undoubtedly saved the day. Yet this funding bonanza seems unable to boost growth. We know that money doesn’t necessarily bring happiness. But now we discover, much to our dismay, that neither does it guarantee a full- steam recovery.
Henry M. Paulson Jr via Caixin | Trade does result in very real and serious job losses, while its benefits are spread more broadly over the entire U.S. economy. Yet many job losses are not a result of trade; they are actually driven by productivity gains related to rapid advancements in technology, a powerful force disrupting labor markets globally and affecting numerous countries, including the U.S. and China.
AXA IM | At the time of writing, Hillary Clinton enjoys a near 2 point lead over Donald Trump in the national polls. This lead had narrowed to almost a 1 point gap recently – the smallest since the brief lead Trump held over Clinton at the time of the Republican convention. The polls appear equally tight if we look at the likely battleground states. Exhibit 2 illustrates a mixed picture in terms of Clinton or Trump leads in key US states.
J.L.M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | You will agree that the messages we are getting from the main central banks fuel more distrust than certainty. The scenario is complex. And part of this complexity comes precisely from the current uncertainty which translates into a greater correlation between the financial markets and assets at a global level.
AXA IM | Given the importance of trade in connecting the world economies, rising protectionist rhetoric in the US presidential election is particularly alarming. Both candidates, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, have made anti-trade and Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) remarks during their respective campaigns:
In terms of economic performance, it’s easy to see the most successful US presidents have been Truman and Eisenhower, due to the high growth and low deficit under their presidency, followed by Kennedy-Johnson, and most of all Clinton, the best in all these areas: constant growth, low inflation, very low unemployment rate, diminshing deficit.
J.L.M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | The financial industry is stronger than it was…Yet it continues to be one of the most penalised sectors in the stock market. The recent stock market performance of the banks in the EMU has been the worst in terms of sector/región for the last 10 years.
Investors do not expect the Fed to move on rates at today’s’ meeting. There is only a slim 20% support for this view, as hopes for a strong recovery were dashed by recent disappointing data. The widely expected hike may have to wait until the Presidential Elections are over.
There are a lot of stupid comparisons in the press, which contain elements of truth taken out of context, so the reader has a false idea of reality. For example, it has been said that in the second quarter, Europe has beaten the US in terms of GDP growth. If we put things in context, this makes no sense, unless we are celebrating a race which only lasts for one quarter.
BoAML | With an abundance of stories about how things can go wrong for the US economy, we are often asked to lay out a scenario in which the data surprise to the upside. In our view, the burden rests on the labor market. If there is an increase in demand for labor, which is met by a gain in supply, we could settle on a stronger trend in job growth.