J. P. Morgan | At the beginning of the year, both the equity and bond markets were positioned for an aggressive monetary policy easing cycle. However, with core inflation remaining persistent and the US economy proving resilient, markets are now reassessing how many rate cuts central banks will make this year. In an environment where markets continue to be affected by data surprises, we expect to see elevated volatility. In…
Link Securities| Members of the alliance between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, called OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed on Sunday to extend their voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day of oil during 2Q2024, giving extra support to the market, in an environment of concern about global growth, and the increase in production of countries outside this alliance. Saudi…
The G20 finance ministers, meeting in São Paulo (Brazil), consider that inflation is not far from being “effectively controlled” and affirmed that they will continue to pay “close attention” to its trajectory in order to avoid an upturn, Brazilian official sources reported on Thursday. The director of International Affairs of the Central Bank of Brazil, Paulo Picchetti, who participated in the two days of work of the G20 Finance, said…
Norbolsa| Banks are finally signing up for a US Federal Reserve funding mechanism that has been largely dormant for more than two years, putting them in a stronger position to cope with any stress. It is unclear, however, whether they will want to use it in the event of a crisis. The Standing Repo Facility allows banks to borrow emergency overnight cash from the Federal Reserve through a repurchase agreement,…
Bankinter : January CPI in Japan reaches +2.2% year-on-year vs. +1.9% expected and +2.6% previous. Underlying: +3.5% vs. +3.3% expected and +3.7% previously. Analysis: The price indicator decelerates for the third consecutive month, although it defies expectations in both readings. This slowdown is mostly due to a mirror effect in energy prices (-12.1% year-on-year). Since, after the strong rebound in energy, as of February 2023, the government implemented subsidies to…
Bankinter | The US film and entertainment company has released results that largely fail to meet expectations. 4Q 2023 figures (against Bloomberg consensus): Revenue $10,284M vs. $10,465M estimate, EBITDA $2,471M vs. $2,805M estimate, adjusted EPS -0.16$ vs -0.092$ estimate. The published figures are negatively impacted by the -12% drop in ad revenue. The company beat analyst estimates in direct-to-consumer subscribers, reaching 97.7 million, including acquisitions such as Turkish streaming service…
Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | China’s economy has been experiencing a structural slowdown, but what is causing concern now is that it is also slipping below its potential and undergoing a cyclical downturn. The faster deceleration in investment compared to consumption, along with weak CPI data, already provides evidence of China’s negative output gap.To assess empirically where China stands with its cycle, we use a model developed by Holston-Laubach-Williams (2023)…
Link Securities| A consortium participated by Acciona (ANA) has signed an agreement with the Ontario administration in Canada for the development of a new section of the Toronto underground extension currently underway, with an estimated maximum value of up to CA$2 billion (around €1.37 billion), according to the newspaper Expansión. Acciona’s joint venture with Canada’s Amico has thus beaten the other two bids submitted in the tender, the first consisting…
Norbolsa| One of the most important signs of cooperation we have seen in recent times is the ongoing talks between the US and China to find a way out of the debt of impoverished countries and avoid a wave of sovereign defaults. The talks, which include ways to pre-emptively extend loan periods before countries default, are generally aimed at easing poor countries’ annual debt service burden of more than $400…
Bankinter: The main messages to come out of the 31 January meeting are: Growth outlook revised upwards after a solid Q4. Employment and wages remain strong but have moderated. The overall and underlying PCE readings will continue to decelerate in 2024, but are still off target. Uncertainty in the projections remains high, but has been reduced. Risks to the inflation projections stand out. Fed members put on the table the…