Renta 4 | Finally OPEC+ may have reached a tentative agreement to extend production cuts and the member countries could meet as soon as this weekend to sign it. Saudi Arabia and Russia wanted a firm commitment from those countries which were evading their quotas. So they have finalised an accord with Iraq to meet not only its share of the cuts, but even to compensate for past breaches.
David Page (AXA IM) | Yet even on our relatively bullish assessment the US economy will close 2021 1.7% below the level of GDP it would have achieved with potential growth from end-2019. This suggests the US economy would still exhibit spare capacity – a higher level of unemployment than at the start of 2020 and lower capacity utilisation, something that is likely to leave the Federal Reserve struggling to achieve its 2% inflation target – let alone anything higher.
via The Conversation | One important pillar of Hong Kong’s economy remains unchanged and outside of Chinese government control – its currency, which is pegged to the US dollar via a currency board. This could have significant benefits for the city as it tries to deal with pressing socioeconomic challenges. But this also requires more public spending from the special administrative region’s government.
Nitesh Shah (Wisdoom Tree) | OPEC+ had been readying itself for an earlier-than-originally scheduled meeting. That drove oil prices higher. However, disputes about compliance levels with quotas are casting doubt on moving the meeting to 4th June. If the meeting does go ahead this week, oil prices are likely to recoup intra-day losses on 3rd June. That could take Brent above US$40/bbl and WTI above US$38/bbl.
Simon Peters (eToro) | Bitcoin has passed the much-feted $10,000 resistance level, the first time since the crash of February 2020 when it dipped to $3,850 due to Covid-19 fears.
Intermoney | Argentina has once again been subject to a credit episode, as ruled yesterday by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA), which involved the activation of the well-known CDS insurance. Argentina has accumulated 8 default episodes, four of which have occurred since 1980. Whatsmore, it could be considered that one more may have been added to these figures – namely the defaults of the southern country which would bring the total to 9.
BofA Global Research | The collapse in global oil benchmarks and weak North American differentials forced US and Canadian E&Ps to quickly dial back activity in order to avoid the cash burn from negative operating margins. Producers shut-in output, choked back wells, deferred completions and well starts, and pulled forward or extended oil sands maintenance to avoid exposure to low prices. In total, May oil curtailments may have exceeded 2.5mn b/d across the US and Canada and many producers pre-maturely announced plans for additional shut-ins during June. Since many of these plans were unveiled, oil prices have strengthened to levels where shutting-in no longer makes sense and should actually encourage producers to quickly restore production. For this reason, we expect June curtailments, particularly in the US, to be a fraction of the previously announced levels.
Jun Du , Agelos Delis, Mustapha Douch & Oleksandr Shepotylo via The Conversation | Although the global economy was fragile at the start of 2020, many hoped for increased international trade following the US-China Phase One trade deal. COVID-19 has scuppered those hopes, bringing the world’s factories to a standstill and severely disrupting global supply chains.
Addam Vettese (eToro) | Samsung has made it easier for users of its smartphones to buy and trade cryptoassets. Yesterday, the smartphone company announced a partnership with cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, with Samsung’s Blockchain Wallet now integrating with the Gemini mobile app, allowing users to buy and sell cryptocurrencies. Users will also be able to view their Gemini account balances in the Samsung Blockchain Wallet app, as well as transfer their crypto into cold storage through Gemini’s Custody feature.
Yves Bonzon (Julius Baer)| The tensions between Washington and Beijing seem to be increasing almost every day. After the US administration ratcheted up its criticism of China’s response to the coronavirus outbreak, trade tensions have again heated up. News has emerged that China would like to renegotiate the phase-1 trade agreement signed earlier this year as it is increasingly viewed as unfair domestically. This has categorically been ruled out by US President Donald Trump.