Bankinter | SNCB, Belgium’s national railway company, has awarded CAF the contract to renew its fleet. It is a framework agreement, with an initial scope of 180 trains, which would amount to €1.7 billion. The agreement provides for extensions of up to 380 additional units.
Analysis team’s view: Good news for CAF, confirming the positive momentum in contracting. The initial amount represents a 10% increase on the order book at the end of Q3 2025 (12.8% of the railway portfolio). The portfolio was already close to historic highs, representing 4x sales in the railway business.
The slower pace of recovery in the railway margin and the good cumulative performance of the stock led us to revise our rating to Neutral. In any case, we view positively the fact that volume growth in the coming years is guaranteed by current order book levels, both in rail and buses (even more so after the new award), and we expect financial stability (estimated DFN/EBITDA levels of 0.8x 2025).
In summary, CAF adds more certainty and potential for volume growth with this new contract, and the improved visibility of the pace of recovery in railway margins would serve as a catalyst for our estimates.
