Morgan Stanley | The Spanish Banking Association (AEB) has reached an agreement with trade unions to raise salaries by 4.5% in 2023. This figure compares with the 5% increase in costs which analysts had in their models for 2023-2024. It also compares with the estimates for a 25% growth in NII in Spain in 2023. Although this agreement only applies to Santander, BBVA, Sabadell and Bankinter, Álvaro Serrano believes that a similar one will be reached for Caixabank and Unicaja.
For Caixabank (top pick) Álvaro is assuming 8% costs inflation in 2023, along with 200 million euros of cost synergies pending, which seems conservative. With a 7.8x P/E and double digit total yield, Álvaro reiterates his Overweight stance.