Bankinter | The International Energy Agency estimates that global oil demand will continue to rise until the end of the decade. This is despite the fact that Chinese demand will peak in 2027, before moderating due to the advance of electric mobility. In the US, lower-than-expected electrification and lower energy costs will help boost oil demand. It estimates that developed countries will reach peak consumption in 2029, at 105.6 Mbd, and that this will fall slightly in 2030 due to the gradual replacement of oil. This level compares with a supply level that will rise to 114.7 Mbd in 2030. As for 2025, it estimates that supply will increase by 1.8 Mbd (up 200,000 bpd), while demand will increase by 720,000 bpd.
Finally, with regard to the Israel/Iran conflict, it considers that this is a risk to supply due to its location, although the market is well supplied and recent increases in OPEC production reduce this risk.
Analysis team’s view: the IEA considers that oil market supply will remain high in the coming years. It also anticipates a moderation in Chinese consumption from 2027 onwards. These arguments are in line with those we have put forward on several occasions: the trend for oil is bearish due to higher production, falling demand due to lower global growth, particularly in China, tariffs, the rise of alternative energies and increasing efficiency in consumption.
