Brent crude oil is trading at $36 a barrel, down 20%, after OPEC and Russia broke off negotiations on Friday to try and cut the supply by 1.5 million barrels a day. At these levels, it completely breaks through the level indicated by the sector as break even, namely 45-55 dollars. Banco Sabadell analyses the sensitivity of the stocks they cover to variations in crude prices: Repsol, Total and ENI.
Renta 4 | Spanish oil company Repsol published its operational data for Q119. In the first quarter of the year, the price of Brent Crude (63.1$/b) fell -5% yoy and -8% compared to Q418 because of the strong reduction in crude prices since their highs at the beginning of October (-42% until the end of December, although with a subsequent recovery of +28% from the beginning of 2019 until the end of March).
For any investor who believes that $70/barrel is more or less the right price, then the European oil firms are currently fairly priced. Alphavalue recently upped their earnings forecasts to include $70/barrel as a new normality. This leaves the sector with an upside potential of +6% on a 6-month horizon.
May 25, 2015 | BNP Paribas | Data highlights that there is more pain to come for Drillers for the foreseeable future…and the opportunity for further offshore deflation for E&Ps and Majors.
MADRID | April 27, 2015 | By Fernando G. Urbaneja | At his own pace, without giving up to noisy external pressures, Repsol Chairman Antonio Brufau established an executive management model with a clear separation between the chairman of the Board and the executive team –entrusted to a CEO with full authority. That had been a claim of significant shareholders of the Spanish oil firm and some investment funds, although for different reasons.